AI Adoption — Current measure
AI Adoption Rate Across US Companies
19.3% of US firms use AI in production according to the Census Bureau's Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS), up from 3.8% in mid-2023. This is the most rigorous adoption measure available — consultancy surveys report 5-10x higher rates (55-78%) because they sample self-selected, tech-forward companies. The Census data covers all US firms and provides the ground truth. Adoption varies dramatically by sector: information and finance lead at 20-30%, while construction and agriculture remain under 5%.
This number is a weighted average across all selected sources, with higher-tier evidence and more recent data weighted more heavily. See the full methodology for details on weighting, source validity, and recency bias.
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How This Prediction Has Evolved
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Additional context
Sources (26)
69% of firms across US, UK, Germany, and Australia currently use some AI technology (US: 78%). LLM text generation most common (41%). Expected to rise to 75% in 3 years. Larger, more productive, higher-paying firms more likely to adopt.
Claude Code reached 135K+ daily commits on public GitHub (~4% of all public commits). Growth of 42,896x in 13 months from launch. At current trajectory, projected to reach 20%+ of daily commits by end of 2026.
35.9% of US workers used generative AI by December 2025; adoption is accelerating but remains unevenly distributed across industries and skill levels.
49% of jobs now use AI for at least 25% of their tasks (up from 36% in early 2025); widespread adoption could boost US labor productivity by 1.0-1.8 percentage points annually.
35.9% of US workers used generative AI by December 2025. Adoption concentrated among younger, college-educated, higher-earning employees.
46% of US workers reported using AI tools at work in Q4 2025, up from 33% in Q1 2025. Adoption driven by white-collar professional and technical roles.
78% of organizations report using AI in at least one business function. Enterprise AI spending grew 45% YoY globally.
75% of knowledge workers now use AI tools. Adoption in enterprises with 500+ employees reached 60%, up from 40% a year prior.
88% of organizations use AI in ≥1 function (up from 78%). Gen AI adoption at 71%. But only 7% fully scaled, and just 6% report EBIT impact ≥5%. 62% experimenting with AI agents.
Survey of 180 Fortune 100 executives and 12,000 knowledge workers. 96% of organizations not seeing dramatic improvements in efficiency, innovation, or work quality from AI. Costing Fortune 500 ~$98B/year in lost returns. Workers report feeling 33% more productive individually, but organizational metrics flat.
Survey of 1,150 US workers: 40% received AI-generated 'workslop' in the past month; each instance cost ~2 hours to deal with. 18% of AI users admitted sending low-quality AI output. Estimated cost: $186/worker/month or ~$9M/year for a 10,000-person org.
Census Bureau rigorous measure finds 9.7% of firms actively using AI, while broader surveys report 78%. Adoption gap driven by definitional differences in what counts as AI use.
Only ~25% of Information sector businesses using AI; ~2.5% in Accommodation/Food — adoption patterns driven more by workforce composition than income.
In about 40% of employment in exposed occupations, at least 50% of tasks will be replaceable. Average labor-cost savings ~25% from current tools, potentially 40% as systems improve.
37.4% of US workers used AI on the job in the past week. Adoption highest among college-educated (52%) and workers earning $100K+ (58%). Survey of 25,000 workers.
US firm AI usage in production reached 10.2%, with 14.8% in testing. Large firms (500+ employees) at 28%. Adoption accelerating across all sectors.
Less than 10% of firms using AI regularly as of mid-2025 (BTOS data); ~20% adoption in professional, scientific, and technical industries.
AI is now a core part of business strategy for 78% of respondents. 65% report measurable revenue or cost impact from AI deployments.
Half of workers in AI-exposed occupations have used ChatGPT; adoption unequal — women 16pp less likely, employer restrictions hinder broader use.
79% of enterprise leaders expect gen AI to transform their industry within 3 years. 42% have gen AI in production, up from 22% a year earlier.
Azure AI services revenue grew 60% YoY. Over 53,000 organizations now use Azure OpenAI service, up from 11,000 a year earlier.
72% of organizations surveyed now use AI in at least one function, up from 55% the prior year. Generative AI adoption doubled.
AI usage among US firms rose to 6.6%, with an additional 9.1% in testing. Information sector at 24%, finance/insurance at 15%.
Over 1 trillion AI predictions served per week via Einstein. 68% of enterprise customers have enabled at least one AI feature.
3.8% of US firms reported using AI in production. An additional 6.4% were in testing/pilot phase. Adoption highest in information (18%) and professional services (12%).
One-third of respondents say their organizations are using gen AI regularly in at least one business function. AI adoption overall at 55% of survey respondents.