Job Displacement | Current measure | Data through Apr 2026
Early-Career Employment Decline in AI-Exposed Occupations
Employment decline for workers aged 22-25 in the most AI-exposed occupations, measured relative to less-exposed occupations. Only relative or regression-adjusted estimates are plotted; raw unadjusted declines measure a different quantity and appear as overlays.
This is observed data from real-world surveys and measurements, not a prediction. See the full methodology for details on weighting, source validity, and recency bias.
Indicators Over Time
The chart below tracks how this estimate has shifted over time as new research and data emerge. Every source is color-coded by evidence quality; use the tiers below to filter what appears on the chart and in the weighted average above.
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Note: Every plotted point is a relative estimate — the employment gap between early-career workers in most-exposed versus least-exposed occupations — not an absolute headcount drop. Aggregate employment in exposed occupations has continued to grow across all ages; this effect is specific to the 22-25 cohort. Non-US estimates (Sweden, Netherlands) are shown as overlays because geography is a hard gate on comparability.
Directional research signals
Studies with a clear directional finding but no single plottable value — e.g. “entry-level hiring fell” or “no measurable displacement detected.” Stacked blocks show net evidence per month; positive and negative signals cancel. Hover any column to see the studies.
Each data point is from a different source. Dots are color-coded by evidence tier. Click any dot to jump to its source.
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Sources (11)
Stanford DEL: early-career women -4.5%/yr vs men -2.5%/yr in exposed jobs
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In the most-exposed quintile, employment among early-career women has been contracting at 4.5% per year since the introduction of ChatGPT in November 2022, while employment for men of the same age is contracting at 2.5% per year.
Solomon (Goldman): cites Stanford 16% entry-level decline in exposed roles
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According to one Stanford study, in the occupations most susceptible to greater automation, such as software engineering or customer service, entry-level employment has already declined by 16 percent relative to the least-exposed occupations.
Yale Budget Lab: 16-34 unemployment +0.5pp but not statistically significant
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We therefore investigated effects for workers 34 and younger, finding mixed evidence of AI effects for this group... roughly half a percentage point increase in the entire sample, and more for the 16-34 year old subsample - but both statistically insignificant.
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Regression-adjusted employment of early career workers in the most AI-exposed quintile of industry-state cells declined by 12% over the 10 quarters following the introduction of ChatGPT, even as employment in less-exposed industries rose.
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They find that among 22-25 year olds employment in the top two quartiles of AI exposure fell about 12 percent relative to employment in the bottom quartile.
Lodefalk: Sweden ages 22-25 in high-AI occupations -5.5%; gradient monotonic
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An event study documents an accelerating decline in employment of 22-25-year-olds in high-AI-exposure occupations, reaching 5.5 per cent by early 2025 relative to less exposed occupations within the same employers.
ESB/Rabobank: Dutch youth in GenAI-exposed jobs fell 13% (Netherlands)
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In het derde kwartaal van 2025 werkten ruim dertien procent minder jongeren in de meest vatbare beroepsgroepen dan in het vierde kwartaal van 2022, terwijl de werkgelegenheid in andere beroepsgroepen juist drie procent steeg.
EIG: entry-level hiring rate -23% vs pre-pandemic, vs -18% overall
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Entry-level hiring rates have declined 23 percent compared to pre-pandemic levels, a steeper drop than the 18 percent decline for overall hiring.
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Workers age 22-25 in most AI-exposed occupations experienced 13% employment decline since 2022, driven by fewer workforce entrants rather than higher separations. Employment share for AI-exposed occupations fell from 16.4% (Nov 2022) to 15.5% (Sep 2025).
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Early-career workers (ages 22-25) in the most AI-exposed occupations have experienced a 16 percent relative decline in employment even after controlling for firm-level shocks. By September 2025, employment for software developers aged 22-25 declined nearly 20% compared to its peak in late 2022.
Stanford/ADP: raw employment for ages 22-25 in exposed jobs fell 6%
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In jobs with high AI exposure, employment for 22- to 25-year-olds fell 6% between late 2022 and July 2025. Software developers saw a 20% early-career decline. Employment among workers 30 and older grew 6-13%.
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