Wage Impact | By 2030
Entry-Level Wage Impact from AI by 2030
Weighted average across 9 sources. Observed so far: ~-5.7% (5 measurements from Yale Budget Lab, Brookings, Dallas Fed, BLS). Projections range -12–2% (median ~-10.5%).
Real wages for entry-level positions (0-2 years experience) across knowledge-work industries are projected to decline 6.3% by 2030. Entry-level workers are hit hardest because 35% of junior-role tasks are within current AI capability vs. 18% for senior roles. The traditional career ladder, where you learn by doing routine work, is being compressed as AI handles those learning-stage tasks.
Blended estimate across 9 sources ranging -12–2%. Higher-tier evidence and more recent data are weighted more heavily. See the full methodology for details on weighting, source validity, and recency bias.
Observed Data & Projections
This prediction has two fundamentally different types of evidence: observed employment data (what has actually happened) and forward-looking projections (what researchers estimate will happen). They are shown separately below because they answer different questions.
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What has happened
Measured employment data from government statistics, large-scale surveys, and administrative records. This is ground truth: what has actually occurred in the labor market.
Each dot is a different measurement source. Click any dot to jump to its source below.
What researchers project
Forward-looking estimates from structural models, institutional surveys, and expert forecasts. All projections target by 2030, shown by the reference line. The wide range (-12–2%) reflects different model assumptions about reinstatement effects, demand elasticity, and adoption speed, not just parameter uncertainty.
Each dot is a different projection source. The x-axis shows when the projection was published. Click any dot to jump to its source. Overlay bars show directional signals from related studies.
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Full Economy Picture
AI and the US Economy
Automation impact by occupation and income tier.
Sources (42)
GS: AI widened entry-vs-experienced unemployment gap by 0.6pp
These negative effects fall largely on less experienced workers, widening the entry-level-to-experienced wage gap by 1.3% and the unemployment rate gap by 0.6pp from their pre-pandemic averages.
Goldman Sachs: +3.3pp entry-vs-experienced wage gap per 1SD AI exposure
The wage gap has similarly deteriorated, with Goldman's regression analysis estimating that a one standard-deviation increase in AI substitution exposure widens the entry-level-to-experienced wage gap by roughly 3.3 percentage points.
NYT: Kinder (Brookings) no longer needs entry-level research hires
I really don't know anything a college student can bring to my team that Claude can't do.
Brookings: 3.5M STARs high-exposed + low adaptive capacity
Only 51% of job pathways between Gateway and Destination occupations are not highly exposed to AI.
Lichtinger & Hosseini: Junior tasks most susceptible to AI displacement
The tasks juniors tend to do—more routine, more codifiable, more text-based—are generally more exposed to AI than what seniors do... the tasks juniors typically perform may be the ones most susceptible to displacement.
Tufts Digital Planet: Entry-level roles bear disproportionate AI displacement
AI-related job losses are more concentrated in lower-income roles... affecting entry-level roles that are usually repetitive such as administrative, clerical, or data-processing positions
Low-wage workers gain around 2% on average, whereas wages barely change toward the top (with some outliers).
Shih: New grad tech hiring -50% since 2019; underemployment 42.5% (NY Fed Q4 2025)
new grad hiring in large tech is down over 50% since 2019. For the first time in over decades, recent college grads have a higher unemployment rate than the national average. In addition, the 'underemployment rate' for recent graduates has risen to 42.5% (Q4 2025, New York Federal Reserve).
Anthropic: AI exposure concentrates in credentialed roles (17.4% vs 4.5% grad degrees)
Graduate degree holders comprise 17.4% of the most AI-exposed workers vs 4.5% of the unexposed group
KPMG: 64% say AI agents changed entry-level hiring
64% say agents have already changed their approach to entry-level hiring
Dallas Fed: AI exposure → 0.28pp wage growth reduction in low-experience-premium jobs
For an occupation with a 0 percent experience premium, increased AI exposure is associated with a 0.28 percentage point reduction in wage growth.
Dallas Fed: Zero-experience occupations see -0.28pp wage growth from AI exposure
AI's impact depends on whether it automates or augments. For zero-experience-premium occupations, increased AI exposure is associated with -0.28pp reduction in wage growth. Wages in AI-exposed jobs not uniformly declining.
ICLE: pressure concentrated in entry-level segments of exposed occupations
Pressure concentrated in entry-level segments of highly exposed occupations; adjustment happening at the margin through task reallocation.
Cruces et al.: AI closes 75% of education-based productivity gap (RCT)
Without AI, higher-education participants outperformed lower-education participants by 0.548 standard deviations. With AI access, this gap fell to 0.139 standard deviations—closing about 75 percent of the baseline productivity difference.
Althoff & Reichardt: AI simplification boosts lower-skill worker productivity
increases the relative productivity of lower-skill workers in tasks and occupations that were previously the territory of higher skilled workers... this lowering of skill-based barriers is the key force reducing inequality
IMF: AI skill diffusion linked to lower youth employment in high-exposure roles
Emerging evidence that generative AI adoption is reducing entry-level hiring, especially where tasks are automatable rather than complementary to humans.
Frank et al.: unemployment risk rose in AI-exposed occupations from early 2022
Unemployment risk in AI-exposed occupations rose beginning early 2022; graduates with AI-exposed curricula have higher first-job pay and shorter job searches post-ChatGPT.
EIG/LinkedIn: Entry-level hiring rates -23% vs pre-pandemic (vs -18% overall)
entry-level hiring rates have declined 23 percent compared to pre-pandemic levels, a steeper drop than the 18 percent decline for overall hiring
Imas: Wage share collapse from automation could trigger demand-side contraction
If broad automation shifts income from un-satiated high-spending (high MPC) workers to the satiated low-spending (low MPC) capital owners, this can trigger a Keynesian demand collapse that contracts the economy
Dallas Fed: young worker share fell 16.4% → 15.5%
Employment share of young workers (20-24) in most AI-exposed occupations fell from 16.4% to 15.5%; decline driven by fewer people transitioning into employment, not layoffs.
Dallas Fed: Workers 22-25 in AI-exposed jobs saw 13% employment decline since 2022
Employment share for AI-exposed occupations fell from 16.4% (Nov 2022) to 15.5% (Sep 2025). Workers age 22-25 in most AI-exposed occupations experienced 13% employment decline since 2022, driven by fewer workforce entrants rather than layoffs.
Stanford: small positive wage effects overall
35.9% of US workers used generative AI by December 2025; adoption concentrated among younger, college-educated workers. Small positive wage effects overall.
Hosseini/Lichtinger: Low-wage jobs gain indirectly as AI lowers barriers above them
GenAI modestly changes net wage inequality; entry barriers shift for new workers.
Revelio Labs: automation suppressing wage gains in lower-paid roles
Automation pressures are disproportionately suppressing wage gains in lower-paid roles, which is contrary to narratives that AI is mostly impacting high-earning, white-collar jobs.
Galdin & Silbert: signal loss helps bottom quintile +14%, hurts top -19%
On Freelancer.com coding jobs, LLM-driven signal degradation redistributes hiring: bottom-quintile workers hired 14% more often, top-quintile hired 19% less often in no-signaling counterfactual.
Stanford/Brynjolfsson: no significant wage changes despite 16% entry-level employment decline
We find little difference in annual salary trends by age or exposure quintile, suggesting possible wage stickiness. Labor market adjustments are visible in employment more than in compensation.
World Bank: entry-level postings fell 18-20%
Job postings for high-AI-substitution occupations fell 12% relative to low-substitution roles post-ChatGPT; effect grew from 6% in year one to 18% by year three. Based on 285 million Lightcast job postings.
Brookings: young people need skill-building and mentorship for AI workplace
Whether AI destroys jobs or transforms them, young people still need fundamental supports: skill-building, career navigation, and mentorship.
ILO review: declining demand for novice workers
Novice workers benefit more from LLMs in simple tasks but face declining demand across AI-complementary work; digital trace data show substitution in writing and translation.
SSRN: junior employment declined sharply at AI-adopting firms
Analysis of 62M U.S. resumes: junior employment declined sharply at AI-adopting firms while senior employment was largely unchanged — described as 'seniority-biased technological change.'
Goldman Sachs: entry-level tech postings down ~35% since Jan 2023
Unemployment rate for 20- to 30-year-olds in tech rose nearly 3% since early 2024. Entry-level job postings in the US diminished about 35% since January 2023. Goldman Sachs predicts AI will displace about 6-7% of the total workforce.
Burning Glass: Grad hiring plans cut from +7.3% to +0.6%
52% of the Class of 2023 was underemployed a year after graduating. Entry-level postings in high-AI-exposure occupations fell from 2022 to 2025, while postings requiring 6+ years of experience held steady or rose. Employers reported plans to hire 7.3% more graduates from the Class of 2025; that expectation had been cut to just 0.6%.
Real median weekly earnings for workers aged 16-24 in professional services fell 5.2% from 2023 to 2025.
NBER (Autor/Thompson): 1 SD expertise decline linked to 18% wage drop per decade (303 occupations, 1980-2018)
A one-standard-deviation decline in the complexity of an occupation's tasks—equivalent to the decline in expertise required by a telephone operator from 1980 to 2018—is linked to an 18% wage decline and a 40% increase in employment per decade.
PwC: Degree requirements fell 7pp for AI-augmented jobs (2019-24), lowering barriers
Employer demand for formal degrees is declining, especially quickly for AI-exposed jobs. The percentage of jobs AI augments that require a degree fell 7 percentage points between 2019 and 2024.
Anthropic CEO: up to 50% of entry-level office jobs impacted
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned that up to 50% of entry-level office jobs could be substantially impacted by AI within the next 2-3 years.
Youth (18-24) employment in OECD countries in AI-exposed sectors declined 4.5% YoY. Real starting salaries fell 3-8% across knowledge-work sectors.
NBER/Autor: AI could help restore middle-skill, middle-class jobs
AI could enable a larger set of workers to perform higher-stakes decision-making tasks currently reserved for elite experts. If used well, AI can help restore the middle-skill, middle-class heart of the US labor market.
McKinsey: up to 30% of hours automated; lower-wage face 14x more transitions
By 2030, activities accounting for up to 30% of hours currently worked could be automated, accelerated by generative AI. Lower-wage workers face up to 14x more occupational transitions than higher-wage counterparts.
Entry-level job postings in AI-exposed fields declined 12% YoY. Starting salaries for junior analysts, associates, and coordinators showed early downward pressure.
NBER: automation displaces workers but productivity gains create new tasks
Theoretical framework for automation's displacement and productivity effects on labor. Automation displaces workers from tasks they previously performed, but productivity gains create new tasks and increase demand for labor.
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