Wage Impact — By 2028
Freelancer/Gig Worker Rate Impact by 2028
Average freelancer hourly rates in AI-exposed categories have declined 19.3% since the launch of ChatGPT. Writing, translation, graphic design, and data work are hardest hit. This is a critical leading indicator because freelancers feel labor market shifts 12-18 months before salaried workers — they lack the institutional buffer of employment contracts and are directly exposed to market pricing.
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How This Prediction Has Evolved
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Additional context
Sources (14)
Writing gig volume dropped ~30% across major freelance platforms post-ChatGPT. Translation and data entry categories down 35-45%. AI-augmented freelancers partially offset decline.
Business spend on freelance marketplaces fell from 0.66% to 0.14% of total spend. Writer earnings on these platforms dropped ~31% (based on marketplace spending data; other studies find 5-33% declines depending on metric). Over half of businesses stopped using freelancers for AI-automatable tasks.
Freelance marketplace spend fell from 0.66% to 0.14% of total business spend (Q4 2021 to Q3 2025); substitution ratio: $1 reduced freelance spend → $0.03 in AI spend.
Digital trace data show substitution already occurring in writing and translation tasks; declining demand for novice workers across AI-complementary freelance work.
Median weekly earnings for freelance writers and designers declined 18% in real terms from 2022-2025.
High-skill freelancers disproportionately affected — top performers impacted most, contradicting conventional wisdom. Some adapted by transitioning from text tasks to programming.
Platform workers in writing, translation, and data labeling report median earnings declines of 15-25% since 2023.
AI-exposed freelance categories face 20-35% rate compression. High-skill freelancers who adopt AI see rates hold or increase.
Workers see ChatGPT halving working times in about a third of tasks, but employer restrictions and required training hinder adoption.
Gross services volume in writing declined 33% YoY. Translation down 40%. Company pivoting to AI-augmented freelancer model.
ChatGPT's launch caused a 21% decline in freelance writing job postings and a 15% drop in average hourly rates within 6 months.
Average order value for writing gigs declined 20%. AI-assisted gig categories (AI art, prompt writing) grew 4x but at lower price points.
Writing freelancers reported 15% fewer job postings; early signs of rate compression in translation and content categories.