Projected US Job Displacement from AI by 2030

Goldman Sachs prior est.: 6-7% of US workers (~11M) could be displaced by AI

Recessions worsen outcomes: The effects of technology-related displacements are amplified (by three weeks of additional unemployment and a 5-percentage-point likelihood of subsequent joblessness). Goldman Sachs previously estimated that 6% to 7% of US workers (about 11 million people) could have their jobs displaced by AI.

GS: tech-displaced workers take ~1 month longer to find new job

Our analysis implies that AI substitution has reduced monthly payroll growth by roughly 25k and raised the unemployment rate by 0.16 percentage points over the past year, while augmentation has added about 9k to monthly payroll growth and lowered the unemployment rate by 0.06pp. This implies a net drag of 16k per month on payroll growth and a 0.1pp boost to the unemployment rate.

Dimon: AI adoption may outpace workforce adaptation speed

AI will definitely eliminate some jobs, while it enhances others. There is a possibility that AI deployment will move faster than workforce adaptation to new job creation. In prior technological transformations, labor had time to adjust and retrain.

Goldman Sachs: AI substitution −25K jobs/month, augmentation +9K jobs/month

New research by Goldman Sachs economists finds that AI is already a measurable drag on the U.S. job market—erasing roughly 16,000 net jobs per month over the past year, with the pain falling hardest on Gen Z and entry-level workers. Goldman's breakdown shows AI substitution wiped out roughly 25,000 jobs per month in the past year, while augmentation added back about 9,000.

BLS Mar 2026: +571K nonfarm payrolls, no net displacement signal

Total nonfarm payrolls rose by 571K in March 2026 to 157,775K.

BLS Mar 2026: Unemployment 4.3% (-0.1pp MoM)

Unemployment rate 4.3% in March 2026, down 0.1 percentage points.

BCG/NYT: >50% of US jobs 'reshaped' in 2-3y but far fewer replaced entirely

researchers at Boston Consulting Group estimated that more than half of the jobs in the United States would be 'reshaped' by artificial intelligence over the next two to three years but that far fewer would be replaced entirely.

Challenger: AI cited in 25% of 60,620 US job cut announcements in March 2026

U.S.-based employers announced 60,620 job cuts in March, according to Challenger, up 25% from 48,307 cuts announced in February. AI was the leading reason for cutting jobs, cited in 25% of announcements, followed by closings, restructuring and economic conditions.

Stanford DEL: 45% of 51 AI deployments resulted in headcount reduction

Headcount reduction was the largest outcome in 45% of the deployments, but alternatives (hiring avoided, redeployment, no reduction) accounted for 55%.

OpenAI: expects AI to handle month-long projects, fundamentally reshape work

If progress continues, we can expect systems to be capable of carrying out projects that currently take people months. This shift will reshape how organizations run, how knowledge is created, and how people find meaning and opportunity.

FRI: 69 economists forecast labor indicators near historical trends through 2030

In a rapid AI progress scenario, economists forecast a drop in labor force participation from its 2025 baseline of 62.6% to 59.1% in 2030 and 55% in 2050, with roughly half of this decline—equivalent to 10 million jobs—attributable to AI.

IJRASET: routine cognitive roles face greatest AI displacement exposure

The paper maps both the opportunities GenAI creates and the structural challenges it poses to workers across skill levels. It underscores the uneven distribution of risk, with routine cognitive roles facing the greatest exposure.

INSEAD/HBS RCT: AI-using firms grew 1.9x revenue, labor demand unchanged

Despite faster growth, treated firms do not scale inputs proportionally. Their demand for external capital investment falls by 39.5% relative to the control group, while their demand for labor remains unchanged.

MIT/CCI: 75% of AI market value in software/info tasks; physical work largely unaffected

75% of AI application market value concentrated in software and information tasks. Physical work activities remain largely unaffected. Think/Do/Interact ontology of 39,603 activities based on O*NET 29.1.

Industry-wide vulnerability to job displacement is approximately 6%... 9.3 million jobs are vulnerable to job loss due to AI under our median adoption path, with a plausible range of 2.7 to 19.5 million

Imas/Shukla: Low-dimensional jobs (trucking, warehousing) face higher displacement risk than high-exposure knowledge work

The workers at greatest risk are not necessarily those with the highest average exposure, but those whose jobs are built around a small number of core tasks that AI can automate.

Garicano, Li & Wu: Strong task bundles protect jobs; displacement only in weak-bundle occupations

In weak-bundle occupations, AI automates some tasks and narrows the boundary of the job, leading to the standard task-substitution channel. In strong-bundle occupations where tasks are not independently reallocable, AI improves performance inside the job, but does not remove the human from the bundle.

Fed: ~475K jobs lost among 22-25yo in high AI-exposure (Brynjolfsson est.)

They find that among 22-25 year olds employment in the top two quartiles of AI exposure fell about 12 percent relative to employment in the bottom quartile. Starting from total private employment of 130 million, and assuming about 7.6 percent of the workforce is 22-25 years old (based on the CPS), a 12 percent job loss for two quartiles works out to about 475,000 jobs lost.

Yale Budget Lab: Anthropic 'Observed Exposure' metric shows stability, not disruption

The addition of the January and February 2026 CPS and the introduction of Anthropic's 'Observed Exposure' metrics do not suggest any substantial changes. Occupational dissimilarity, industry dissimilarity, and exposure and usage metrics all remain flat, lie within historical ranges, or continue along pre-existing trends.

GS Research (Briggs): AI adoption over 10yr = +0.6pp unemployment rate

If it takes place over a decade, Goldman Sachs Research expects to see a 0.6 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate.

Yale (Restrepo): Compute constraints will slow AI displacement timeline

A lot of these claims are premature. Many of the people making them have an interest in selling a product, so you have to take them with a grain of salt. Right now I would describe the labor market as more of a wait-and-see environment. You cannot automate everything tomorrow because we simply don't have enough computing power to do it.

WaPo: No measurable evidence AI putting Americans out of work; white-collar jobs first in line

Two points of general agreement stand out: There's no measurable evidence so far that AI is putting Americans as a whole out of work, economists say. And while the victims of past workplace automation were mostly factory and trade workers, it's white collar jobs that are first in line for AI shake-ups today.

Lodefalk et al.: Sweden 22-25yr employment in high-AI occupations -5.5% by 2025H1 (employer DiD)

An event study documents an accelerating decline in employment of 22–25-year-olds in high-AI-exposure occupations, reaching 5.5 per cent by early 2025 relative to less exposed occupations within the same employers, while employment of workers over 50 rose by 1.3 per cent.

Fed/Duke CFO Survey: 50% of firms report no AI job replacement; aggregate effect <0.4%

Survey of ~750 CFOs finds firm-size-and-sector-weighted aggregate employment is expected to decline by less than 0.4% due to AI in 2026, implying ~502K workers. 50% of firms report no AI job replacement. Large firms expect workforce reductions; small firms expect modest gains.

PIIE/Kolko: AI disruption pace similar to computer & internet eras

The evidence on how AI is affecting the labor market today is inconclusive, and claims about harmful impacts on particular groups of workers are premature. Initial evidence suggests that transitional disruption from AI to date is not outpacing recent technological changes.

Oks: Paradigm replacement, not task automation, drives displacement -- still early

I'm skeptical that simply slotting AI into human-shaped jobs will have the results people seem to expect... as long as we are in that regime, I expect disappointing productivity gains and relatively little real displacement.

Morgan Stanley via BizJournals: 4% net job reduction in 5 high-AI sectors

89% of the respondents said they have no plans to cut staff or lay off workers because of AI. Just 3% said they have already cut staff, while 7% said they have plans to reduce their workforce within the next year.

Challenger: AI cited in 8% of Jan–Feb 2026 layoff plans (12,304 cuts)

So far in 2026, AI has been cited for 12,304 job cut announcements, or 8% of job cut plans. In 2025, companies referenced AI for 54,836 announced layoff plans, 5% of total cuts during the year.

Anthropic: Each 10pp AI coverage increase correlates with 0.6pp lower BLS job growth

We find no systematic increase in unemployment for highly exposed workers since late 2022, though we find suggestive evidence that hiring of younger workers has slowed in exposed occupations

ECB SAFE: Only 15% of AI-using firms cite reducing labour costs

Companies with frequent AI use are about 4% more likely to take on additional staff. Only 15% of firms that use AI cite reducing labour costs as a factor.

Citadel: Little evidence of AI disruption in labor data; tracking improved

there is little evidence of AI disruption in labor market data as of today. In fact, the forward-looking components of our labor market tracking have improved and AI data center construction appears to be driving a pick-up in construction hiring.

GS: No measurable economywide productivity-AI relationship yet

While we still do not find a meaningful relationship between productivity and AI adoption at the economywide level, companies that quantified productivity impacts of AI on specific tasks reported a median productivity gain of around 30%.

Substantial mismatches found between agent development and human labor focus

We first analyze 43 benchmarks and 72,342 tasks, measuring their alignment with human employment and capital allocation across all 1,016 real-world occupations in the U.S. labor market.

NBER/Bick et al.: 10pp more AI adoption → ~3.7pp productivity growth

We do not find clear evidence that industry-level AI adoption is associated with employment changes.

FRED Mar 2026: Unemployment level 7,239K

Unemployment level 7,239K in March 2026.

Korinek & Stiglitz: Policy should shift from tech steering to redistribution as AI devalues labor

As technology devalues labor, optimal policy shifts from steering innovation toward redistribution.

Goldman (Mei): only 5-10K/mo drag so far; baseline 6-7% displaced; +½pp unemployment

AI's labor market impact still small — only 5-10K/month drag on net job growth. Only 2½% of jobs exposed to automation today. Baseline forecast: 6-7% of workers displaced (range 3-14%), lowering annual hiring by 1M jobs and raising unemployment ~½pp. US creates 30M gross new jobs/year; does not anticipate job apocalypse. Impact so far largely confined to tech sector but expects it to grow materially.

employment has declined 1 percent since late 2022 in the 10 percent of sectors most exposed to AI

CEPR/BIS: no evidence AI reduces employment in EU firms (12K firm study)

No evidence that AI reduces employment in the short run. AI augments worker output — enabling employees to complete tasks faster and make better decisions — without displacing labour.

Survey of ~6,000 executives across US, UK, Germany, Australia. 90%+ report no employment impact from AI over the past 3 years. Firms expect AI to reduce employment by 0.7% over the next 3 years (US: -1.2%). Employees, by contrast, expect +0.5% job creation.

BLS JOLTS: Quits rate at 2.0% — below 2019 average

Job openings fell to their lowest level since December 2017. Quits rate held steady at 2%, remaining below its 2019 average.

Morgan Stanley (n=935): Early-career positions most at risk; firms >500 cut 15%

Survey respondents said that AI adoption had led to elimination of 11% of jobs and an additional 12% were left unfilled. This is partially offset by 18% new hires, resulting in a 4% net job loss globally.

No measurable change in job openings or aggregate employment in AI-exposed occupations; adjustment happening through task reallocation, not broad displacement.

NBER (Brynjolfsson et al.): 10% min-wage hike → ~8% rise in robot adoption

a 10 percent increase in the minimum wage increases robot adoption by roughly 8 percent relative to the mean

NBER: US/UK/DE/AU firm survey shows mixed AI employment effects across countries

Synthesizes firm-level survey data from the US, UK, Germany, and Australia measuring AI's realized and expected impacts on sales per employee and employment. Data collected Feb-Apr 2025 and Nov 2025-Jan 2026.

FRED JOLTS Feb 2026: Job openings 6,882K, continued cooling

Job openings at 6,882K in February 2026, gradual decline from 2024 peaks.

Indeed: Job postings down 5.2% YoY; AI postings diverging sharply upward

the Indeed Job Postings Index, which was down 5.2% year-over-year as of December 31

ESB/Rabobank: Dutch youth employment in GenAI-exposed jobs fell 13% (Q4 2022–Q3 2025)

In het derde kwartaal van 2025 werkten ruim dertien procent minder jongeren in de meest vatbare beroepsgroepen dan in het vierde kwartaal van 2022, terwijl de werkgelegenheid in andere beroepsgroepen juist drie procent steeg.

A one-standard-deviation increase in Generative AI exposure is associated with an 8% decline in job postings and a 0.6% decline in the hourly wage rate.

Brookings: 70% of 37.1M highly AI-exposed workers are resilient

Of the 37.1 million workers in the top quartile of AI exposure, 26.5 million are in occupations that also have above-median adaptive capacity.

NBER: 6.1M workers (4.2%) highly AI-exposed with low adaptive capacity; clerical/admin roles

Of the 37.1 million workers in the top quartile of AI exposure, 26.5 million are in occupations that also have above-median adaptive capacity. At the same time, 6.1 million workers (4.2% of the workforce) are both highly exposed and in the bottom quartile of adaptive capacity, concentrated in clerical and administrative roles.

Fortune: Sam Altman warns AI could displace significant share of jobs

Anthropic: 49% of jobs now use AI for 25%+ tasks; augmentation overtakes automation

49% of jobs now use AI for at least 25% of their tasks (up from 36% in early 2025); augmentation (52%) has overtaken automation (45%) as primary use pattern.

Frank et al.: unemployment risk rose in AI-exposed occupations from early 2022

Unemployment risk in AI-exposed occupations rose beginning early 2022; graduates with AI-exposed curricula have higher first-job pay and shorter job searches post-ChatGPT.

Cognizant: $4.5T in US labor value could shift to AI; 93% of jobs have exposed tasks

Education task exposure jumped from 11% to 49% — a 4.5x increase driven by multimodal AI, advanced reasoning, and agentic systems. Based on reassessment of 18,000 tasks across 1,000 O*NET occupations.

Jones & Tonetti (Stanford/NBER): Automation raises GDP only 4% by 2040, 19% by 2060 — 'weak links' slow impact

By 2040, output is only 4% higher than it would have been without the growth acceleration, and by 2060 the gain is still only 19%. A key reason for the slow acceleration is the prominence of 'weak links' (an elasticity of substitution among tasks less than one).

IMF: employment 3.6% lower in AI-vulnerable occupations after 5 years

Employment 3.6% lower in AI-vulnerable occupations in regions with high AI-skill demand after 5 years; geographic divergence driven by skill concentration.

Deloitte: 36% of firms expect ≥10% of jobs fully automated within a year

Within a year, more than a third of surveyed companies (36%) expect at least 10% of their jobs to be fully automated.

Workday: ~40% of AI time savings lost to rework; only 14% get clear net gains

Nearly 40% of AI time savings are lost to rework, including correcting errors, rewriting content, and verifying outputs from one-size-fits-all AI tools. Only 14% of employees consistently get clear, positive net outcomes from AI.

JFF: 19% of workers pursuing or considering career changes due to AI

19% of respondents said they are actively pursuing different careers (7%) or considering changing plans in the near future (12%) due to AI-driven transformation.

Imas: Demand-side forces moderate AI displacement impact, negative growth unlikely

automation can depress demand and push AI-driven growth toward the lower end of current forecasts. [...] the conditions needed for growth to actually turn negative are likely too unrealistic to hold in practice

If fully translated to unemployment, AI-driven employment declines among young workers would explain only 0.1 percentage point rise in aggregate unemployment.

Employment share for AI-exposed occupations fell from 16.4% (Nov 2022) to 15.5% (Sep 2025). Workers age 22-25 in most AI-exposed occupations experienced 13% employment decline since 2022, driven by fewer workforce entrants rather than layoffs.

NBER/Delfino: Identity fit dominates reskilling decisions over wages/demand

Perceived 'identity fit' — whether a new skill feels compatible with a person's sense of self — dominated re-skilling decisions, often outweighing beliefs about wages or employer demand.

35.9% of US workers used generative AI by December 2025; small positive wage effects, no significant decline in job openings.

BIS/Aldasoro: EU firms +4% productivity from AI; no employment decline detected

EU firms see +4% productivity from AI adoption; no employment decline detected.

NBER (Gans/Goldfarb): O-ring model -- automating one task changes the return to automating all others

Task-by-task substitution logic is incomplete because automating one task changes the return to automating others. Automation decisions are discrete and can require bundled adoption even when automation quality improves smoothly.

40% of employers globally expect to reduce headcount as AI automates tasks. Net displacement estimates range from 5-14% of current roles by 2030.

MIT Iceberg Index: 11.7% of US workforce (151M workers) currently replaceable, worth $1.2T in wages

AI can already replace 11.7% of the U.S. workforce, or as much as $1.2 trillion in wages across finance, health care, and professional services. The visible tip — tech sector layoffs — represents just 2.2% of total wage exposure ($211B). Simulated 151 million workers across 32,000 skills and 3,000 counties.

McKinsey: 57% of US work hours automatable (44% AI agents + 13% robots); ~40% of jobs highly automatable

Currently demonstrated technologies could automate activities accounting for about 57 percent of US work hours today. AI agents could perform tasks occupying 44 percent of US work hours, while robots could handle another 13 percent. Roles with the highest potential for automation make up about 40 percent of total jobs.

Stanford/Brynjolfsson: entry-level hiring stagnant; AI-exposed jobs driving decline

Overall employment continues to grow robustly, but employment growth for young workers has been stagnant since late 2022. Declining employment in AI-exposed jobs drives stagnant overall employment growth for 22- to 25-year-olds.

McKinsey: 32% of firms expect AI to cut workforce by 3%+ within next year

32% of companies expect AI to reduce workforce by 3%+ within next year. Median 17% of respondents report workforce declines within functions from AI use. 88% of organizations now use AI in at least one business function.

Job postings for high-AI-substitution occupations fell 12% relative to low-substitution roles post-ChatGPT. Effect grew from 6% in year one to 18% by year three. This measures posting-level demand shifts, not direct employment changes.

Denmark study: zero effects on earnings and hours from AI (11 occupations)

Study of 11 occupations in Denmark: essentially zero effects on earnings and hours worked; confidence intervals rule out effects larger than 2%. AI adoption linked to ~4% occupational switching.

AI agents perform near the floor on RLI, with the highest-performing agent achieving an automation rate of 2.5%. 240 real freelance projects across game dev, design, architecture, data analysis, and animation. Best agent earned $1,720 of $143,991 total project value.

Analysis finds no significant macro-level job displacement from AI as of late 2025, though structural shifts are emerging in specific sectors.

Despite fears of imminent AI jobs apocalypse, the overall labor market shows more continuity than disruption since ChatGPT's launch.

Ramp: 50%+ of businesses using freelancers in 2022 have stopped entirely

More than half of businesses using freelancers in 2022 have stopped entirely; freelance marketplace spend fell from 0.66% to 0.14% of total business spend.

ILO review: Productivity gains 20-60% in RCTs; AI exposure highest in high-wage jobs

Productivity gains 20-60% in controlled RCTs, 15-30% in field experiments; AI exposure measures converge toward high-wage jobs being most exposed.

PWBM: Jobs fully AI-replaceable saw 0.75% employment fall 2021-2024

Roughly 10% of US work affected in the short run; AI will increase productivity and GDP by 1.5% by 2035. Jobs that AI can completely replace saw 0.75% employment fall 2021-2024.

Stanford/ADP: 6% employment decline for ages 22-25 in AI-exposed jobs

In jobs with high AI exposure, employment for 22- to 25-year-olds fell 6% between late 2022 and July 2025. Software developers saw a 20% early-career decline. Employment among workers 30 and older grew 6-13%.

NBER (Brynjolfsson/Hitzig): AI centralizes decisions; countervailing forces limit scope

In the absence of active countermeasures, transformative AI may lead to significantly more centralization of decision-making. Some types of information might defy codification, and some types of information processing might be better done locally.

Minneapolis Fed: Job transformation, not displacement, is primary AI labor channel

Within highly exposed occupations, like office and administrative roles, workers specialized in information-processing tasks leave and suffer wage losses, while those specialized in customer-facing and coordination tasks stay and experience wage gains as work rebalances toward their strengths.

BLS: Official employment projections 2024-2034

AI could displace 6-7% of the US workforce if widely adopted (range 3-14%). Currently 2.5% of US employment at risk of displacement from current AI use cases; unemployment projected to increase by 0.5pp during transition.

St. Louis Fed: AI-exposed occupations see larger unemployment rises (r=0.47)

Occupations with higher AI exposure experienced larger unemployment rate increases between 2022 and 2025 (r=0.47). Computer/math occupations (exposure ~80%) saw steepest rises. GenAI-intensive occupations: r=0.57.

CNBC: Amazon deploys 1 millionth robot; CEO says AI will reduce some jobs

Amazon deployed its 1 millionth robot across over 300 fulfillment centers worldwide. CEO Andy Jassy acknowledged that AI will result in fewer people doing some automated jobs, while new roles in robotics maintenance grew 30% at next-generation sites.

PwC: Job growth 38% even in AI-exposed occupations (2019-24); no destruction signal

Job numbers are growing in every industry analysed. Growth remained robust even in more exposed occupations (38%). Productivity growth nearly quadrupled in AI-exposed industries.

Ifo: Two-thirds of German firms expect no AI employment change

27.1% of companies expect artificial intelligence to lead to job cuts in the next five years. Only 5.2% of companies anticipate additional jobs, while two-thirds expect no change.

NBER/Richmond Fed: Calibrated model predicts 23% long-run employment loss; half within 5 years

Calibrated to U.S. data, the model predicts more than threefold improvements in productivity in the some-AI steady state, alongside a long-run employment loss of 23%, with half this loss occurring over the initial five-year transition.

Medium: Commentary on unpreparedness for mass AI unemployment

HBS (Chen et al.): Job postings rose 15%/quarter for AI-augmented roles post-ChatGPT

Using O*NET and LightCast job postings data (2019-June 2024), the study found a 24% decrease in generative AI-exposed skills per firm per quarter for automation-prone occupations, while augmentation-prone occupations saw a 15% increase. Demonstrates the dual displacement/complementarity impact of generative AI.

NBER: LLM-adopting workplaces show zero employment effects (CI rules out >2%)

Workplaces that adopted AI chatbots showed no significant difference in employment, early-career jobs, job churn, or worker mix. Difference-in-differences estimates for earnings and wages are all precisely estimated zeros, ruling out effects larger than 2%.

Calibrated to U.S. data, the model predicts more than threefold productivity improvements alongside a long-run employment loss of 23%, with half (~11.5%) occurring over the initial five-year transition period.

Korinek/Stiglitz: Framework for steering innovation to increase labor demand

Framework for guiding innovation to increase labor demand; steering technology becomes more desirable the less efficient social safety nets are.

HBS: AI displaces automation-prone roles (-24% skills) but creates augmentation roles (+22%)

24% decrease in generative AI-exposed skills per firm per quarter in top-quartile automation-exposed jobs. 15% increase in AI-exposed skills for augmentation-prone jobs. Augmentation-prone job postings increased 22% per quarter per firm.

IBM: Plans to replace ~7,800 back-office roles with AI

IBM CEO stated plans to replace ~7,800 back-office roles with AI. Company investing in reskilling remaining workforce for AI-augmented roles.

BLS MLR: All-occupation employment projected to grow 4.0% average (2023-33)

BLS projects employment of software developers to increase 17.9 percent between 2023 and 2033, much faster than the average for all occupations (4.0 percent).

PNAS Nexus: Workers in AI-exposed occupations face higher unemployment risk

Workers in AI-exposed occupations face significantly higher unemployment risk.

Bessen et al.: automation displacement far below mass layoff rates (0.7% vs 3.5-7.2%/yr)

Only 0.7% of all workers on average leave their employers each year due to automation. The risk of losing a job due to automation is much smaller than the risk of a mass layoff (3.5-7.2%/yr in the Netherlands).

NBER (Hampole et al.): Most-impacted occupations declined 2-2.5% over 5 years

Most adversely impacted occupations (business, financial, engineering) experienced a decline of 2% to 2.5% over a five-year period. Reduced demand in exposed occupations is offset by productivity-driven increases in labor demand at AI-adopting firms.

Indeed: Total US postings 15% below peak; AI-exposed categories steepest declines

Total US job postings are 15% below their February 2022 peak. Categories most exposed to AI (data entry, basic admin, customer service) show steepest declines.

HBS: 13% decline in postings for highly automatable roles

17% decrease in job postings for highly automatable occupations, but 22% increase for augmentation-prone ones — net effect depends on occupation mix.

Workday Davos: 53% say augmentation is top AI scenario (2x any other)

Among respondents actively using or experimenting with AI, 93% agree that it allows them to focus more on higher-level responsibilities. The leading response (53%) was 'AI will augment human capabilities, leading to increased productivity and new forms of innovation.'

AI and automation could account for 6% of total US job losses by 2030, equating to 10.4 million roles. Widespread AI-driven job replacement remains unlikely. AI will augment 20% of jobs rather than eliminate them.

AI adoption associated with -0.6 percentage point decline in employment-to-population ratio.

Abrahams/Levy: High-education, high-cost metros most vulnerable to AI displacement

High-education, high-cost metros are most vulnerable to AI displacement.

Bao et al.: GenAI increased STEM entrepreneurship; displacement may be offset by new firms

GenAI increased STEM incorporated entrepreneurship; displacement may be offset by new firm creation.

AI may increase TFP by only 0.53-0.66% over 10 years under the most aggressive assumptions. Only about 4.6% of all tasks will be affected by AI, and cost savings on these tasks are modest (averaging 27%). The implied GDP effect is 0.93-1.16% over a decade — far below popular estimates. The displacement effect on jobs is correspondingly small, well under 1% of employment.

WSJ: AI starting to threaten white-collar jobs; few industries immune

White-collar layoffs growing as companies link cuts to AI. Google, Duolingo, UPS all reduced workforce. Nearly two-thirds of white-collar workers report improved productivity from AI use.

IMF: Almost 40% of global employment exposed to AI

Almost 40% of global employment is exposed to AI, with advanced economies more affected.

OECD: 27% of jobs at high risk of automation across OECD countries

27% of jobs are in occupations at high risk of automation across OECD countries.

Goldman Sachs: GenAI could substitute up to one-fourth of current work

Roughly two-thirds of current jobs are exposed to some degree of AI automation; generative AI could substitute up to one-fourth of current work.

Bessen: textile automation cut 98% of labor per yard yet employment grew via elastic demand

The main impact of automation in the near future may be to cause a major reallocation of jobs, even if it does not permanently eliminate large numbers of jobs. During the 19th century, technologies had automated 98% of the labour required to weave a yard of cloth. Yet, the number of weaving jobs actually increased for decades over this period.

Bessen (NBER): manufacturing employment followed inverted-U; elastic demand drove growth, inelastic drove decline

If demand is sufficiently elastic and AI does not completely replace humans, then technical change will create jobs rather than destroy them. In manufacturing, technology sharply reduced jobs in recent decades. But before that, for over a century, employment grew, even in industries experiencing rapid technological change. What changed? Demand was highly elastic at first and then became inelastic.

JEP (Mokyr et al.): Every GPT caused anxiety but tech unemployment was 'largely an exaggerated issue'

The evidence is that technological unemployment did not occur on a large scale during the Industrial Revolution. The fears of the Luddites that machinery would impoverish workers were not realized, and the main reason is well understood: mechanization could only replace a limited number of human activities, while technological change increased the demand for other types of labor that were complementary to the capital goods embodied in the new technologies.