Job Displacement — By 2030
Tech Sector Job Displacement by 2030
An estimated 15.4% of tech sector roles — including software engineers, QA testers, IT support, and data analysts — face displacement from AI coding assistants, automated testing, and AI-driven operations. "Displacement" means the role ceases to exist in its current form, not that the worker is necessarily unemployed.
This number is a weighted average across all selected sources, with higher-tier evidence and more recent data weighted more heavily. See the full methodology for details on weighting, source validity, and recency bias.
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How This Prediction Has Evolved
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Additional context
Sources (27)
Updated study: original developers now estimated at -18% speedup (CI: -38% to +9%). Newly-recruited developers estimated at -4% (CI: -15% to +9%). Wide confidence intervals span zero.
Computer/mathematical tasks account for ~33% of all Claude.ai conversations and ~50% of API traffic, indicating concentrated AI impact on tech-adjacent roles.
BLS projects a further 6% decline in programmer roles through 2034. Computer programmer employment (routine coding roles) fell ~27.5% in roughly two years following ChatGPT's release — one of the largest two-year drops in any occupation tracked by BLS. Software developer employment remained flat.
Employment share of young workers (20-24) in most AI-exposed occupations fell from 16.4% to 15.5% between November 2022 and September 2025.
BLS projects AI will dampen software developer employment growth to 17% through 2034, revised down from prior 25% estimate, as AI coding tools reduce headcount needs.
54,694 job cuts cited AI as a reason in 2025, concentrated in tech, finance, and customer service sectors.
78,000 tech sector job losses attributed to AI in the first half of 2025, with QA testing, junior development, and IT support roles most affected.
IT unemployment rate rose from 3.9% to 5.7% between late 2024 and mid-2025, the highest level since 2021, driven by AI-related restructuring.
13% relative decline in employment for workers ages 22-25 in most AI-exposed occupations. Software developer employment for ages 22-25 down nearly 20% since ChatGPT's launch.
Young tech workers (20-30) unemployment risen ~3pp since start of 2025; tech employment share fallen below pre-pandemic trend.
Software developer job postings declined 33% from pre-ChatGPT levels. Overall tech postings down 36%. AI/ML roles the only growing category.
Tech/info/media employment stopped growing at end of 2022, coinciding with ChatGPT release; less than 10% of firms using AI regularly as of mid-2025.
26% increase in completed pull requests, 13.55% increase in commits, 38.38% increase in builds — but build success rate fell by 5.53 percentage points.
Alphabet disclosed ongoing workforce restructuring, noting AI tools have reduced need for certain engineering and support roles while increasing demand for AI/ML specialists.
Meta's 'Year of Efficiency' resulted in ~21,000 job cuts across 2023. Company cited AI-driven productivity gains enabling smaller teams to maintain output.
Software developer postings declined 14% YoY while AI/ML engineer postings grew 45%. Net tech postings down 6% reflecting structural shift, not just cyclical downturn.
17% decrease in job postings for occupations in top quartile of automation potential, alongside 22% increase in postings for augmentation-prone occupations.
Computer programmer employment (routine coding roles) fell ~27.5% in roughly two years following ChatGPT's release — one of the largest two-year drops in any occupation tracked by BLS. Software developer employment remained flat.
AI will increase productivity but impact on jobs more modest than often claimed; estimates ~5% of tasks fully automatable.
Current employment data do not yet show large-scale AI-driven displacement.
Only 23% of worker wages for vision tasks would be cost-effective to automate with AI today.
AI could expose 300 million full-time jobs globally to automation.
Generative AI could enable automation of up to 70% of business activities across occupations.
Employers estimate that 44% of workers' core skills will be disrupted in the next five years.
RCT: developers completed a coding task 55.8% faster with GitHub Copilot assistance.