Risk map · tasks → jobs → sectors → regions
Where AI risk lands
on the US economy
342 occupations scored on a 5-variable framework, rolled up to 25 sectors and projected onto every US county, metro, and state.
Section 03 · Regional explorer
Where the risk lands on the map
Click any county or metro area to explore how AI is reshaping its labor market. You’ll see the occupations that employ the most people locally, the share of their daily tasks that AI can already perform, and which of four near-term paths the region is bending toward — automation (jobs displaced by AI), reorganization (roles restructured around it), growth (sectors expanding because of it), or stability (work largely unchanged).
% jobs at auto-riskquantile
Q1Q5
Range: 0–100 · binned by rank
USLoading county geometry…
Hover or click any region.
Each polygon is colored by its employment-weighted AI displacement risk. Click to focus the map and see the occupation makeup driving that score.
National roll-up
- Average state risk
- 53.0 / 100
- Total employment scored
- 154.2M
- Occupations
- 342
State and metro scores: BLS OEWS May 2024. County scores: Census ACS 2019–2023 at SOC major-group granularity. Color binning adapts to the current view.
Sector makeup
Where the exposed employment sits
National view — each row is one BLS major occupational group, sorted by employment-weighted net risk.
High-risk timeMedium-risk timeLow-risk time|Total covered: 143.1M workers
Time-share by risk bucket means: for an average worker in this sector, what share of their working hours is spent on tasks our model rates high (red), medium (amber), or low (green) risk. A sector where most hours are red is a sector where AI already overlaps with most of the day’s work.
Sector
Employment
Risk (0–100)
Time-share by risk bucket
- Office & admin support13 occupations16.5M6552% high16% med32% low
- Legal5 occupations1.3M6259% high14% med28% low
- Computer & IT10 occupations4.5M5758% high26% med16% low
- Media & communication10 occupations1.2M5647% high25% med28% low
- Protective service6 occupations2.9M564% high30% med66% low
- Military1 occupations—560% high0% med100% lowTop risk:Military careers56
- Business & financial24 occupations9.8M5651% high21% med27% low
- Math4 occupations426K5559% high29% med12% low
- Education, training & library14 occupations8.3M5516% high30% med53% low
- Sales10 occupations10.8M5410% high32% med58% low
- Community & social service9 occupations2.5M5410% high35% med56% low
- Arts & design9 occupations729K5451% high21% med28% low
- Architecture & engineering29 occupations2.4M5340% high26% med33% low
- Life, physical & social science29 occupations1.1M5229% high31% med40% low
- Management26 occupations12.0M5123% high32% med46% low
- Healthcare49 occupations17.5M491% high26% med73% low
- Production16 occupations5.7M480% high26% med73% low
- Farming, fishing & forestry4 occupations890K480% high0% med100% low
- Transportation & material moving11 occupations13.1M480% high13% med87% low
- Entertainment & sports8 occupations803K4711% high30% med58% low
- Food preparation & serving6 occupations12.0M460% high5% med95% low
- Installation, maintenance & repair15 occupations5.0M450% high12% med88% low
- Personal care & service11 occupations3.4M450% high9% med91% low
- Construction & extraction20 occupations6.2M430% high4% med96% low
- Building & grounds cleaning3 occupations3.8M430% high0% med100% low
Appendix
Browse all 342 occupations
The full sortable, filterable table behind the regional roll-ups.
Show table ↓
Appendix
Browse all 342 occupations
The full sortable, filterable table behind the regional roll-ups.
02 · Occupation drill-down
Every occupation, scored
342 BLS occupations, ranked by net displacement risk on a 0–100 scale. Click any row to see the top-rated tasks driving the score.
Showing 342 of 342 occupations.
| Medical transcriptionists | Healthcare | 43,900 | $38K | 10 | 75 | 49% | |
| Paralegals and legal assistants | Legal | 376,200 | $61K | 9 | 70 | 61% | |
| Court reporters and simultaneous captioners | Legal | 17,700 | $67K | 9 | 69 | 56% | |
| General office clerks | Office & admin support | 2,646,000 | $44K | 9 | 69 | 62% | |
| Bill and account collectors | Office & admin support | 166,900 | $46K | 9 | 68 | 59% | |
| Customer service representatives | Office & admin support | 2,814,000 | $43K | 9 | 68 | 55% | |
| Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks | Office & admin support | 1,613,400 | $49K | 9 | 67 | 61% | |
| Secretaries and administrative assistants | Office & admin support | 3,453,100 | $47K | 8 | 66 | 61% | |
| Desktop publishers | Office & admin support | 5,000 | $54K | 9 | 65 | 62% | |
| Library technicians and assistants | Education, training & library | 163,100 | $38K | 7 | 65 | 41% | |
| Medical records specialists | Healthcare | 194,800 | $50K | 9 | 65 | 0% | |
| Travel agents | Sales | 65,700 | $48K | 9 | 65 | 49% | |
| Private detectives and investigators | Protective service | 43,600 | $52K | 6 | 64 | 41% | |
| Drafters | Architecture & engineering | 192,100 | $65K | 9 | 63 | 55% | |
| Financial clerks | Office & admin support | 1,193,000 | $49K | 9 | 63 | 0% | |
| Medical dosimetrists | Healthcare | 4,800 | $138K | 8 | 63 | 53% | |
| Information clerks | Office & admin support | 1,336,600 | $44K | 7 | 62 | 42% | |
| Market research analysts | Business & financial | 941,700 | $77K | 9 | 62 | 66% | |
| Receptionists | Office & admin support | 1,007,200 | $37K | 7 | 62 | 42% | |
| Tutors | Education, training & library | 215,500 | $40K | 7 | 62 | 27% | |
| Computer support specialists | Computer & IT | 882,300 | $62K | 8 | 61 | 62% | |
| Insurance underwriters | Business & financial | 127,000 | $80K | 9 | 61 | 53% | |
| Public safety telecommunicators | Office & admin support | 105,200 | $51K | 7 | 61 | 61% | |
| Survey researchers | Life, physical & social science | 8,800 | $63K | 9 | 61 | 48% | |
| Tellers | Office & admin support | 347,400 | $39K | 7 | 61 | 47% | |
| Arbitrators, mediators, and conciliators | Legal | 9,100 | $68K | 7 | 60 | 40% | |
| Archivists, curators, and museum workers | Education, training & library | 40,200 | $57K | 6 | 60 | 35% | |
| Cashiers | Sales | 3,157,200 | $31K | 7 | 60 | 9% | |
| Editors | Media & communication | 115,800 | $75K | 9 | 60 | 63% | |
| Health information technologists and medical registrars | Healthcare | 41,900 | $67K | 8 | 60 | 0% | |
| Material recording clerks | Office & admin support | 1,300,800 | $46K | 7 | 60 | 35% | |
| Operations research analysts | Math | 112,100 | $91K | 9 | 60 | 61% | |
| Security guards and gambling surveillance officers | Protective service | 1,272,400 | $38K | 5 | 60 | 7% | |
| Tax examiners and collectors, and revenue agents | Business & financial | 57,600 | $60K | 8 | 60 | 54% | |
| Announcers and DJs | Media & communication | 39,500 | $45K | 7 | 59 | 53% | |
| Budget analysts | Business & financial | 50,400 | $88K | 8 | 59 | 49% | |
| Claims adjusters, appraisers, examiners, and investigators | Business & financial | 365,300 | $77K | 7 | 59 | 48% | |
| Cost estimators | Business & financial | 221,400 | $77K | 8 | 59 | 54% | |
| Economists | Life, physical & social science | 17,600 | $115K | 9 | 59 | 68% | |
| Interpreters and translators | Media & communication | 75,300 | $59K | 9 | 59 | 49% | |
| Technical writers | Media & communication | 56,400 | $92K | 9 | 59 | 56% | |
| Adult basic and secondary education and ESL teachers | Education, training & library | 40,900 | $60K | 7 | 58 | 25% | |
| Advertising, promotions, and marketing managers | Management | 434,000 | $160K | 8 | 58 | 49% | |
| Atmospheric scientists, including meteorologists | Life, physical & social science | 9,400 | $97K | 8 | 58 | 56% | |
| Compensation, benefits, and job analysis specialists | Business & financial | 107,000 | $77K | 8 | 58 | 47% | |
| Compliance officers | Business & financial | 418,000 | $78K | 8 | 58 | 60% | |
| Computer programmers | Computer & IT | 121,200 | $99K | 9 | 58 | 50% | |
| Credit counselors | Business & financial | 31,800 | $50K | 7 | 58 | 41% | |
| Financial examiners | Business & financial | 65,100 | $90K | 8 | 58 | 53% | |
| Lawyers | Legal | 864,800 | $151K | 8 | 58 | 59% | |
| Loan officers | Business & financial | 301,400 | $74K | 8 | 58 | 47% | |
| Social and human service assistants | Community & social service | 449,600 | $45K | 5 | 58 | 0% | |
| Web developers and digital designers | Computer & IT | 214,900 | $95K | 9 | 58 | 51% | |
| Accountants and auditors | Business & financial | 1,579,800 | $82K | 8 | 57 | 59% | |
| Actuaries | Math | 33,600 | $126K | 8 | 57 | 61% | |
| Cartographers and photogrammetrists | Architecture & engineering | 13,400 | $78K | 8 | 57 | 49% | |
| Computer and information research scientists | Computer & IT | 40,300 | $141K | 9 | 57 | 61% | |
| Computer hardware engineers | Architecture & engineering | 76,800 | $155K | 8 | 57 | 48% | |
| Geographers | Life, physical & social science | 1,500 | $97K | 8 | 57 | 49% | |
| Graphic designers | Arts & design | 265,900 | $61K | 9 | 57 | 68% | |
| High school teachers | Education, training & library | 1,094,500 | $65K | 7 | 57 | 27% | |
| Insurance sales agents | Sales | 568,800 | $60K | 7 | 57 | 34% | |
| Judges and hearing officers | Legal | 44,800 | $135K | 7 | 57 | 28% | |
| Librarians and library media specialists | Education, training & library | 142,100 | $64K | 7 | 57 | 42% | |
| Mathematicians and statisticians | Math | 34,600 | $104K | 9 | 57 | 50% | |
| Pharmacy technicians | Healthcare | 490,400 | $43K | 4 | 57 | 0% | |
| Photographers | Media & communication | 151,200 | $43K | 7 | 57 | 40% | |
| Political scientists | Life, physical & social science | 6,500 | $139K | 8 | 57 | 55% | |
| Postsecondary teachers | Education, training & library | 1,415,600 | $84K | 7 | 57 | 0% | |
| Property appraisers and assessors | Business & financial | 77,300 | $65K | 7 | 57 | 41% | |
| Quality control inspectors | Production | 598,000 | $47K | 5 | 57 | 0% | |
| Writers and authors | Media & communication | 135,400 | $72K | 9 | 57 | 36% | |
| Advertising sales agents | Sales | 103,700 | $61K | 7 | 56 | 39% | |
| Database administrators and architects | Computer & IT | 144,900 | $123K | 9 | 56 | 54% | |
| Dietitians and nutritionists | Healthcare | 90,900 | $74K | 6 | 56 | 21% | |
| Information security analysts | Computer & IT | 182,800 | $125K | 8 | 56 | 55% | |
| Instructional coordinators | Education, training & library | 232,600 | $75K | 7 | 56 | 33% | |
| Kindergarten and elementary school teachers | Education, training & library | 1,539,800 | $62K | 6 | 56 | 27% | |
| Military careers | Military | 0 | — | 4 | 56 | 0% | |
| Models | Sales | 6,700 | $90K | 8 | 56 | 0% | |
| Occupational health and safety specialists and technicians | Healthcare | 163,700 | $79K | 5 | 56 | 0% | |
| Opticians | Healthcare | 79,900 | $47K | 4 | 56 | 0% | |
| Property, real estate, and community association managers | Management | 466,100 | $67K | 6 | 56 | 21% | |
| Software developers, quality assurance analysts, and testers | Computer & IT | 1,895,500 | $131K | 9 | 56 | 60% | |
| Special effects artists and animators | Arts & design | 57,100 | $100K | 9 | 56 | 53% | |
| Taxi drivers, shuttle drivers, and chauffeurs | Transportation & material moving | 447,900 | $37K | 5 | 56 | 0% | |
| Air traffic controllers | Transportation & material moving | 24,100 | $145K | 7 | 55 | 48% | |
| Architectural and engineering managers | Management | 212,500 | $168K | 7 | 55 | 54% | |
| Broadcast, sound, and video technicians | Media & communication | 146,100 | $57K | 6 | 55 | 29% | |
| Compensation and benefits managers | Management | 20,900 | $140K | 7 | 55 | 41% | |
| Computer and information systems managers | Management | 667,100 | $171K | 7 | 55 | 41% | |
| Computer network architects | Computer & IT | 179,200 | $130K | 8 | 55 | 49% | |
| Concierges | Personal care & service | 45,600 | $37K | 5 | 55 | 8% | |
| Dental and ophthalmic laboratory technicians and medical appliance technicians | Production | 66,800 | $46K | 5 | 55 | 0% | |
| Financial analysts | Business & financial | 429,000 | $102K | 9 | 55 | 0% | |
| Genetic counselors | Healthcare | 4,000 | $99K | 6 | 55 | 35% | |
| Health education specialists | Community & social service | 71,800 | $63K | 6 | 55 | 34% | |
| Historians | Life, physical & social science | 3,400 | $74K | 7 | 55 | 43% | |
| Medical assistants | Healthcare | 811,000 | $44K | 4 | 55 | 0% | |
| Natural sciences managers | Management | 104,300 | $161K | 7 | 55 | 47% | |
| Network and computer systems administrators | Computer & IT | 331,500 | $97K | 8 | 55 | 55% | |
| Probation officers and correctional treatment specialists | Community & social service | 92,300 | $65K | 6 | 55 | 34% | |
| Public relations and fundraising managers | Management | 128,900 | $133K | 7 | 55 | 42% | |
| Public relations specialists | Media & communication | 315,900 | $70K | 8 | 55 | 53% | |
| Securities, commodities, and financial services sales agents | Sales | 514,500 | $78K | 8 | 55 | 54% | |
| Training and development managers | Management | 46,400 | $127K | 7 | 55 | 40% | |
| Training and development specialists | Business & financial | 452,300 | $66K | 7 | 55 | 47% | |
| Aerospace engineers | Architecture & engineering | 71,600 | $135K | 7 | 54 | 55% | |
| Chemists and materials scientists | Life, physical & social science | 95,500 | $87K | 7 | 54 | 40% | |
| Civil engineering technologists and technicians | Architecture & engineering | 64,900 | $64K | 6 | 54 | 29% | |
| Clinical laboratory technologists and technicians | Healthcare | 351,200 | $62K | 5 | 54 | 0% | |
| Computer systems analysts | Computer & IT | 521,100 | $104K | 8 | 54 | 56% | |
| Financial managers | Management | 868,600 | $162K | 7 | 54 | 34% | |
| Fire inspectors | Protective service | 17,600 | $75K | 4 | 54 | 0% | |
| Fundraisers | Business & financial | 134,400 | $66K | 7 | 54 | 34% | |
| Human resources specialists | Business & financial | 944,300 | $73K | 7 | 54 | 41% | |
| Industrial designers | Arts & design | 30,600 | $79K | 8 | 54 | 60% | |
| Logisticians | Business & financial | 241,000 | $81K | 7 | 54 | 41% | |
| Middle school teachers | Education, training & library | 633,700 | $63K | 6 | 54 | 19% | |
| News analysts, reporters, and journalists | Media & communication | 49,300 | $60K | 7 | 54 | 55% | |
| Psychologists | Life, physical & social science | 204,300 | $94K | 6 | 54 | 34% | |
| Purchasing managers, buyers, and purchasing agents | Business & financial | 605,600 | $80K | 7 | 54 | 41% | |
| Real estate brokers and sales agents | Sales | 532,200 | $59K | 6 | 54 | 22% | |
| School and career counselors and advisors | Community & social service | 376,300 | $65K | 6 | 54 | 41% | |
| Surveying and mapping technicians | Architecture & engineering | 59,400 | $52K | 5 | 54 | 0% | |
| Teacher assistants | Education, training & library | 1,422,800 | $35K | 4 | 54 | 0% | |
| Transportation, storage, and distribution managers | Management | 216,700 | $102K | 6 | 54 | 20% | |
| Wholesale and manufacturing sales representatives | Sales | 1,613,600 | $74K | 7 | 54 | 8% | |
| Actors | Entertainment & sports | 57,000 | $49K | 7 | 53 | 0% | |
| Architects | Architecture & engineering | 123,600 | $97K | 7 | 53 | 43% | |
| Chemical technicians | Life, physical & social science | 57,000 | $58K | 5 | 53 | 0% | |
| Correctional officers and bailiffs | Protective service | 406,500 | $58K | 3 | 53 | 0% | |
| Data scientists | Math | 245,900 | $113K | 9 | 53 | 0% | |
| Epidemiologists | Life, physical & social science | 12,300 | $84K | 7 | 53 | 54% | |
| Film and video editors and camera operators | Media & communication | 79,900 | $71K | 7 | 53 | 43% | |
| Human resources managers | Management | 221,900 | $140K | 7 | 53 | 26% | |
| Industrial engineering technologists and technicians | Architecture & engineering | 74,600 | $65K | 6 | 53 | 28% | |
| Industrial engineers | Architecture & engineering | 351,100 | $101K | 7 | 53 | 54% | |
| Labor relations specialists | Business & financial | 65,400 | $94K | 7 | 53 | 34% | |
| Landscape architects | Architecture & engineering | 21,800 | $80K | 7 | 53 | 48% | |
| Management analysts | Business & financial | 1,075,100 | $101K | 7 | 53 | 54% | |
| Mechanical engineers | Architecture & engineering | 293,100 | $102K | 7 | 53 | 48% | |
| Nuclear engineers | Architecture & engineering | 15,400 | $128K | 7 | 53 | 48% | |
| Personal financial advisors | Business & financial | 326,000 | $102K | 7 | 53 | 42% | |
| Police and detectives | Protective service | 826,800 | $77K | 4 | 53 | 0% | |
| Postsecondary education administrators | Management | 226,600 | $104K | 7 | 53 | 33% | |
| Psychiatric technicians and aides | Healthcare | 182,900 | $42K | 3 | 53 | 0% | |
| Sales managers | Management | 619,500 | $138K | 7 | 53 | 33% | |
| Social workers | Community & social service | 810,900 | $61K | 4 | 53 | 0% | |
| Sociologists | Life, physical & social science | 3,400 | $102K | 7 | 53 | 42% | |
| Urban and regional planners | Life, physical & social science | 44,700 | $84K | 7 | 53 | 40% | |
| Veterinary technologists and technicians | Healthcare | 134,200 | $46K | 4 | 53 | 0% | |
| Water and wastewater treatment plant and system operators | Production | 132,400 | $58K | 5 | 53 | 0% | |
| Art directors | Arts & design | 135,000 | $111K | 8 | 52 | 56% | |
| Biochemists and biophysicists | Life, physical & social science | 35,600 | $104K | 7 | 52 | 53% | |
| Bioengineers and biomedical engineers | Architecture & engineering | 22,200 | $107K | 7 | 52 | 48% | |
| Biological technicians | Life, physical & social science | 82,700 | $52K | 5 | 52 | 8% | |
| Construction and building inspectors | Construction & extraction | 147,600 | $72K | 5 | 52 | 0% | |
| Craft and fine artists | Arts & design | 52,000 | $56K | 6 | 52 | 0% | |
| Diagnostic medical sonographers | Healthcare | 90,000 | $89K | 5 | 52 | 0% | |
| Electrical and electronics engineers | Architecture & engineering | 287,900 | $119K | 7 | 52 | 52% | |
| Environmental scientists and specialists | Life, physical & social science | 90,300 | $80K | 6 | 52 | 41% | |
| Gambling services workers | Personal care & service | 150,600 | $36K | 4 | 52 | 0% | |
| Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses | Healthcare | 651,400 | $62K | 4 | 52 | 0% | |
| Lodging managers | Management | 52,000 | $68K | 5 | 52 | 0% | |
| Marine engineers and naval architects | Architecture & engineering | 8,500 | $106K | 7 | 52 | 34% | |
| Materials engineers | Architecture & engineering | 23,000 | $108K | 7 | 52 | 41% | |
| Medical scientists | Life, physical & social science | 165,300 | $101K | 7 | 52 | 42% | |
| Meeting, convention, and event planners | Business & financial | 155,800 | $59K | 6 | 52 | 32% | |
| Physicists and astronomers | Life, physical & social science | 26,400 | $166K | 7 | 52 | 37% | |
| Power plant operators, distributors, and dispatchers | Production | 46,600 | $104K | 6 | 52 | 14% | |
| Rehabilitation counselors | Community & social service | 91,900 | $46K | 5 | 52 | 0% | |
| Set and exhibit designers | Arts & design | 31,300 | $66K | 7 | 52 | 36% | |
| Social and community service managers | Management | 219,800 | $78K | 6 | 52 | 34% | |
| Substance abuse, behavioral disorder, and mental health counselors | Community & social service | 483,500 | $59K | 5 | 52 | 7% | |
| Umpires, referees, and other sports officials | Entertainment & sports | 19,300 | $39K | 5 | 52 | 0% | |
| Agricultural and food scientists | Life, physical & social science | 38,700 | $79K | 6 | 51 | 39% | |
| Bus drivers | Transportation & material moving | 546,100 | $48K | 4 | 51 | 0% | |
| Cardiovascular technologists and technicians | Healthcare | 64,700 | $67K | 4 | 51 | 0% | |
| Emergency management directors | Management | 13,200 | $86K | 6 | 51 | 14% | |
| Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers | Transportation & material moving | 2,235,100 | $57K | 5 | 51 | 0% | |
| Hydrologists | Life, physical & social science | 6,300 | $92K | 6 | 51 | 41% | |
| Interior designers | Arts & design | 87,100 | $63K | 7 | 51 | 53% | |
| Jewelers and precious stone and metal workers | Production | 35,100 | $49K | 4 | 51 | 0% | |
| Machinists and tool and die makers | Production | 354,800 | $58K | 4 | 51 | 0% | |
| Marriage and family therapists | Community & social service | 77,800 | $64K | 5 | 51 | 0% | |
| Material moving machine operators | Transportation & material moving | 867,700 | $47K | 4 | 51 | 0% | |
| Microbiologists | Life, physical & social science | 20,700 | $87K | 6 | 51 | 40% | |
| Music directors and composers | Entertainment & sports | 47,300 | $64K | 7 | 51 | 20% | |
| Physical therapist assistants and aides | Healthcare | 157,100 | $60K | 3 | 51 | 0% | |
| Physician assistants | Healthcare | 162,700 | $133K | 5 | 51 | 14% | |
| Producers and directors | Entertainment & sports | 167,000 | $83K | 7 | 51 | 49% | |
| Special education teachers | Education, training & library | 559,500 | $64K | 5 | 51 | 0% | |
| Tour and travel guides | Personal care & service | 55,800 | $37K | 4 | 51 | 0% | |
| Agricultural engineers | Architecture & engineering | 1,700 | $85K | 6 | 50 | 34% | |
| Airline and commercial pilots | Transportation & material moving | 155,400 | $198K | 5 | 50 | 14% | |
| Community health workers | Community & social service | 65,100 | $51K | 3 | 50 | 0% | |
| Dental assistants | Healthcare | 381,900 | $47K | 3 | 50 | 0% | |
| Environmental engineering technologists and technicians | Architecture & engineering | 12,900 | $59K | 5 | 50 | 0% | |
| Exercise physiologists | Healthcare | 23,900 | $58K | 4 | 50 | 0% | |
| Industrial production managers | Management | 241,900 | $121K | 6 | 50 | 28% | |
| Medical and health services managers | Management | 616,200 | $118K | 6 | 50 | 27% | |
| Nurse anesthetists, nurse midwives, and nurse practitioners | Healthcare | 382,700 | $132K | 5 | 50 | 0% | |
| Nursing assistants and orderlies | Healthcare | 1,495,400 | $39K | 2 | 50 | 0% | |
| Occupational therapy assistants and aides | Healthcare | 54,400 | $66K | 3 | 50 | 0% | |
| Petroleum engineers | Architecture & engineering | 19,600 | $141K | 6 | 50 | 34% | |
| Pharmacists | Healthcare | 335,100 | $137K | 5 | 50 | 0% | |
| Preschool and childcare center directors | Management | 90,200 | $56K | 5 | 50 | 0% | |
| Sales engineers | Sales | 56,800 | $122K | 7 | 50 | 35% | |
| Semiconductor processing technicians | Production | 31,900 | $51K | 4 | 50 | 0% | |
| Speech-language pathologists | Healthcare | 187,400 | $95K | 5 | 50 | 7% | |
| Telecommunications technicians | Installation, maintenance & repair | 268,500 | $64K | 3 | 50 | 0% | |
| Top executives | Management | 4,022,200 | $105K | 6 | 50 | 20% | |
| Veterinary assistants and laboratory animal caretakers | Healthcare | 117,800 | $37K | 2 | 50 | 0% | |
| Aerospace engineering and operations technologists and technicians | Architecture & engineering | 9,300 | $80K | 5 | 49 | 7% | |
| Agricultural and food science technicians | Life, physical & social science | 38,900 | $48K | 4 | 49 | 0% | |
| Anthropologists and archeologists | Life, physical & social science | 8,800 | $65K | 5 | 49 | 7% | |
| Chemical engineers | Architecture & engineering | 21,600 | $122K | 6 | 49 | 35% | |
| Civil engineers | Architecture & engineering | 368,900 | $100K | 6 | 49 | 34% | |
| Electrical and electronic engineering technologists and technicians | Architecture & engineering | 93,700 | $77K | 5 | 49 | 0% | |
| Elementary, middle, and high school principals | Management | 333,300 | $104K | 6 | 49 | 19% | |
| Environmental science and protection technicians | Life, physical & social science | 40,400 | $49K | 4 | 49 | 0% | |
| Fashion designers | Arts & design | 25,700 | $81K | 7 | 49 | 40% | |
| Firefighters | Protective service | 344,900 | $60K | 3 | 49 | 0% | |
| Food service managers | Management | 352,800 | $65K | 4 | 49 | 0% | |
| Forensic science technicians | Life, physical & social science | 20,700 | $67K | 5 | 49 | 0% | |
| Home health and personal care aides | Healthcare | 4,347,700 | $35K | 2 | 49 | 0% | |
| Mechanical engineering technologists and technicians | Architecture & engineering | 38,300 | $69K | 5 | 49 | 0% | |
| Mining and geological engineers | Architecture & engineering | 7,000 | $101K | 6 | 49 | 34% | |
| Nuclear medicine technologists | Healthcare | 20,000 | $97K | 4 | 49 | 0% | |
| Nuclear technicians | Life, physical & social science | 6,000 | $104K | 5 | 49 | 8% | |
| Postal service workers | Office & admin support | 500,000 | $58K | 3 | 49 | 0% | |
| Project management specialists | Business & financial | 1,046,300 | $101K | 7 | 49 | 0% | |
| Radiation therapists | Healthcare | 19,200 | $102K | 4 | 49 | 0% | |
| Radiologic and MRI technologists | Healthcare | 272,000 | $79K | 4 | 49 | 0% | |
| Recreation workers | Personal care & service | 327,700 | $35K | 3 | 49 | 0% | |
| Respiratory therapists | Healthcare | 139,600 | $80K | 4 | 49 | 0% | |
| Retail sales workers | Sales | 4,208,800 | $35K | 4 | 49 | 0% | |
| Agricultural workers | Farming, fishing & forestry | 812,600 | $36K | 3 | 48 | 0% | |
| Career and technical education teachers | Education, training & library | 239,600 | $63K | 4 | 48 | 0% | |
| Delivery truck drivers and driver/sales workers | Transportation & material moving | 1,531,300 | $43K | 3 | 48 | 0% | |
| EMTs and paramedics | Healthcare | 282,900 | $46K | 3 | 48 | 0% | |
| Entertainment and recreation managers | Management | 43,200 | $77K | 5 | 48 | 0% | |
| Environmental engineers | Architecture & engineering | 39,400 | $104K | 6 | 48 | 47% | |
| Farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers | Management | 836,100 | $88K | 4 | 48 | 0% | |
| Fishing and hunting workers | Farming, fishing & forestry | 21,900 | — | 2 | 48 | 0% | |
| Fitness trainers and instructors | Personal care & service | 370,100 | $46K | 3 | 48 | 0% | |
| Geological and hydrologic technicians | Life, physical & social science | 12,900 | $51K | 5 | 48 | 0% | |
| Geoscientists | Life, physical & social science | 25,100 | $99K | 5 | 48 | 7% | |
| Metal and plastic machine workers | Production | 1,000,700 | $47K | 4 | 48 | 0% | |
| Oil and gas workers | Construction & extraction | 115,900 | $53K | 3 | 48 | 0% | |
| Orthotists and prosthetists | Healthcare | 10,100 | $78K | 4 | 48 | 0% | |
| Painting and coating workers | Production | 174,300 | $47K | 3 | 48 | 0% | |
| Phlebotomists | Healthcare | 139,700 | $44K | 2 | 48 | 0% | |
| Preschool teachers | Education, training & library | 555,100 | $37K | 3 | 48 | 0% | |
| Registered nurses | Healthcare | 3,391,000 | $94K | 4 | 48 | 0% | |
| Surgical assistants and technologists | Healthcare | 141,000 | $62K | 3 | 48 | 0% | |
| Waiters and waitresses | Food preparation & serving | 2,329,700 | $34K | 3 | 48 | 0% | |
| Zoologists and wildlife biologists | Life, physical & social science | 18,200 | $73K | 5 | 48 | 0% | |
| Administrative services and facilities managers | Management | 422,600 | $107K | 5 | 47 | 8% | |
| Bakers | Production | 249,100 | $37K | 2 | 47 | 0% | |
| Construction equipment operators | Construction & extraction | 539,500 | $58K | 3 | 47 | 0% | |
| Construction managers | Management | 550,300 | $107K | 5 | 47 | 0% | |
| Diesel service technicians and mechanics | Installation, maintenance & repair | 319,900 | $61K | 3 | 47 | 0% | |
| Floral designers | Arts & design | 43,800 | $36K | 3 | 47 | 0% | |
| Food and beverage serving and related workers | Food preparation & serving | 5,030,600 | $31K | 3 | 47 | 0% | |
| Forest and conservation workers | Farming, fishing & forestry | 10,800 | $44K | 2 | 47 | 0% | |
| Heavy vehicle and mobile equipment service technicians | Installation, maintenance & repair | 245,600 | $63K | 3 | 47 | 0% | |
| Industrial machinery mechanics, machinery maintenance workers, and millwrights | Installation, maintenance & repair | 538,300 | $64K | 3 | 47 | 0% | |
| Musicians and singers | Entertainment & sports | 169,800 | $88K | 4 | 47 | 0% | |
| Railroad workers | Transportation & material moving | 77,900 | $76K | 4 | 47 | 0% | |
| Surveyors | Architecture & engineering | 56,100 | $73K | 5 | 47 | 0% | |
| Assemblers and fabricators | Production | 1,885,400 | $44K | 3 | 46 | 0% | |
| Athletic trainers | Healthcare | 33,900 | $60K | 3 | 46 | 0% | |
| Audiologists | Healthcare | 15,800 | $92K | 4 | 46 | 0% | |
| Automotive service technicians and mechanics | Installation, maintenance & repair | 805,600 | $50K | 3 | 46 | 0% | |
| Cooks | Food preparation & serving | 2,805,100 | $36K | 3 | 46 | 0% | |
| Electrical and electronics installers and repairers | Installation, maintenance & repair | 118,800 | $71K | 3 | 46 | 0% | |
| Electro-mechanical and mechatronics technologists and technicians | Architecture & engineering | 15,000 | $71K | 4 | 46 | 0% | |
| Flight attendants | Transportation & material moving | 130,800 | $67K | 3 | 46 | 0% | |
| Food processing equipment workers | Production | 282,600 | $40K | 3 | 46 | 0% | |
| Optometrists | Healthcare | 47,800 | $135K | 4 | 46 | 0% | |
| Podiatrists | Healthcare | 9,700 | $153K | 4 | 46 | 0% | |
| Recreational therapists | Healthcare | 16,100 | $60K | 3 | 46 | 0% | |
| Sheet metal workers | Construction & extraction | 127,000 | $61K | 3 | 46 | 0% | |
| Skincare specialists | Personal care & service | 97,400 | $42K | 3 | 46 | 0% | |
| Veterinarians | Healthcare | 86,400 | $126K | 4 | 46 | 0% | |
| Woodworkers | Production | 214,600 | $44K | 3 | 46 | 0% | |
| Automotive body and glass repairers | Installation, maintenance & repair | 193,000 | $51K | 2 | 45 | 0% | |
| Butchers | Production | 143,100 | $39K | 2 | 45 | 0% | |
| Childcare workers | Personal care & service | 991,600 | $32K | 2 | 45 | 0% | |
| Conservation scientists and foresters | Life, physical & social science | 42,400 | $69K | 4 | 45 | 0% | |
| General maintenance and repair workers | Installation, maintenance & repair | 1,629,700 | $49K | 2 | 45 | 0% | |
| Hand laborers and material movers | Transportation & material moving | 6,950,000 | $38K | 2 | 45 | 0% | |
| Hazardous materials removal workers | Construction & extraction | 51,300 | $48K | 2 | 45 | 0% | |
| Health and safety engineers | Architecture & engineering | 23,800 | $110K | 5 | 45 | 0% | |
| Massage therapists | Healthcare | 168,000 | $58K | 2 | 45 | 0% | |
| Medical equipment repairers | Installation, maintenance & repair | 68,000 | $63K | 3 | 45 | 0% | |
| Pest control workers | Building & grounds cleaning | 102,400 | $45K | 2 | 45 | 0% | |
| Physicians and surgeons | Healthcare | 839,000 | $239K | 5 | 45 | 0% | |
| Small engine mechanics | Installation, maintenance & repair | 78,000 | $48K | 2 | 45 | 0% | |
| Stationary engineers and boiler operators | Production | 33,300 | $75K | 3 | 45 | 0% | |
| Welders, cutters, solderers, and brazers | Production | 457,300 | $51K | 2 | 45 | 0% | |
| Animal care and service workers | Personal care & service | 439,400 | $34K | 2 | 44 | 0% | |
| Bartenders | Food preparation & serving | 756,700 | $34K | 2 | 44 | 0% | |
| Carpenters | Construction & extraction | 959,000 | $59K | 2 | 44 | 0% | |
| Coaches and scouts | Entertainment & sports | 306,500 | $46K | 4 | 44 | 0% | |
| Elevator and escalator installers and repairers | Construction & extraction | 24,200 | $107K | 3 | 44 | 0% | |
| Food preparation workers | Food preparation & serving | 902,700 | $34K | 2 | 44 | 0% | |
| Glaziers | Construction & extraction | 60,500 | $55K | 2 | 44 | 0% | |
| Janitors and building cleaners | Building & grounds cleaning | 2,447,700 | $36K | 1 | 44 | 0% | |
| Logging workers | Farming, fishing & forestry | 44,300 | $50K | 2 | 44 | 0% | |
| Solar photovoltaic installers | Construction & extraction | 28,600 | $52K | 2 | 44 | 0% | |
| Aircraft and avionics equipment mechanics and technicians | Installation, maintenance & repair | 160,800 | $79K | 3 | 43 | 0% | |
| Boilermakers | Construction & extraction | 10,400 | $73K | 2 | 43 | 0% | |
| Calibration technologists and technicians | Installation, maintenance & repair | 15,800 | $65K | 4 | 43 | 0% | |
| Chefs and head cooks | Food preparation & serving | 197,300 | $61K | 3 | 43 | 0% | |
| Chiropractors | Healthcare | 57,200 | $79K | 3 | 43 | 0% | |
| Electricians | Construction & extraction | 818,700 | $62K | 2 | 43 | 0% | |
| Flooring installers and tile and stone setters | Construction & extraction | 112,300 | $52K | 1 | 43 | 0% | |
| Funeral service workers | Personal care & service | 59,600 | $59K | 3 | 43 | 0% | |
| Insulation workers | Construction & extraction | 67,400 | $51K | 2 | 43 | 0% | |
| Masonry workers | Construction & extraction | 294,300 | $57K | 2 | 43 | 0% | |
| Occupational therapists | Healthcare | 160,000 | $98K | 3 | 43 | 0% | |
| Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters | Construction & extraction | 504,500 | $63K | 2 | 43 | 0% | |
| Water transportation workers | Transportation & material moving | 84,300 | $66K | 3 | 43 | 0% | |
| Construction laborers and helpers | Construction & extraction | 1,649,100 | $46K | 1 | 42 | 0% | |
| Dentists | Healthcare | 149,300 | $179K | 3 | 42 | 0% | |
| Manicurists and pedicurists | Personal care & service | 210,100 | $35K | 2 | 42 | 0% | |
| Roofers | Construction & extraction | 166,700 | $51K | 1 | 42 | 0% | |
| Barbers, hairstylists, and cosmetologists | Personal care & service | 651,200 | $35K | 2 | 41 | 0% | |
| Drywall installers, ceiling tile installers, and tapers | Construction & extraction | 118,600 | $59K | 1 | 41 | 0% | |
| Heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers | Installation, maintenance & repair | 425,200 | $60K | 2 | 41 | 0% | |
| Painters, construction and maintenance | Construction & extraction | 342,200 | $49K | 1 | 41 | 0% | |
| Wind turbine technicians | Installation, maintenance & repair | 13,600 | $63K | 2 | 41 | 0% | |
| Electrical power-line installers and repairers | Installation, maintenance & repair | 127,400 | $93K | 2 | 40 | 0% | |
| Grounds maintenance workers | Building & grounds cleaning | 1,296,400 | $38K | 1 | 40 | 0% | |
| Ironworkers | Construction & extraction | 85,100 | $62K | 1 | 40 | 0% | |
| Dancers and choreographers | Entertainment & sports | 17,000 | $51K | 2 | 39 | 0% | |
| Athletes and sports competitors | Entertainment & sports | 19,100 | $62K | 1 | 38 | 0% | |
| Dental hygienists | Healthcare | 221,600 | $94K | 2 | 38 | 0% | |
| Physical therapists | Healthcare | 267,200 | $101K | 3 | 37 | 0% |
04 · Methodology
How risk is scored
Show details ↓Five research-backed variables — two pressure forces and three buffers — combined into a bounded 0–10 net risk per occupation, then employment-weighted into sectors.
How risk is scored
Show details ↓PressureTechnical Exposure
How many of this occupation's tasks can AI actually perform today? Anchored to the Karpathy/GPT exposure score, carried through at the occupation level.
PressureAdoption Speed
How fast will firms in this sector actually deploy AI? Mapped from task-composition-weighted category adoption lag. Regulated industries lag tech by years.
BufferWorker Adaptability
Can displaced workers retrain and transition? Built from pay percentile and education tier, equal-weighted across the 342-occupation set.
BufferDemand Elasticity
When AI makes output cheaper, does demand expand enough to offset job losses? Rule-based defaults by BLS major category at present.
BufferAI Complementarity
Does AI replace workers or make them more productive? Estimated from task composition and adjusted by job dimensionality — the number of distinct task clusters.
Roll-up
- Each task gets a 0–100 risk score from technical exposure, adoption pace, demand outlook, and O*NET importance.
- Task scores are bucketed (low < 33, medium 33–66, high > 66) and time-weighted by O*NET importance to yield per-occupation time-share.
- Occupations are scored on the 5-variable framework, combined into a net risk on 0–10 (and also displayed on 0–100).
- Sector risk is the employment-weighted average of occupation net risk across that BLS major group.
On the OpenAI Jobs Transition Framework
The four archetypes on this page (Automation Risk, Reorganize, Grow, Less Change) and the decision-tree structure come from Richmond’s AI Jobs Transition Framework (OpenAI, April 2026). We apply the framework using our 5-variable scores rather than the paper’s per-occupation outputs, which haven’t been published as a downloadable table yet. National splits from our classifier (auto-risk ~34% / reorganize ~7% / grow ~9% / less-change ~50%) differ from the paper’s (18% / 24% / 12% / 46%), mostly because our human-necessity proxy is task-share-based rather than the paper’s GPT-5.4-scored regulatory/relational/physical taxonomy. Qualitative groupings agree: lawyers and physicians land in reorganize, software developers in grow, customer-service reps and general clerks in automation-risk. We expect to refine the classifier once the paper’s technical appendix is released.
Counterpoint from the paper (Table 1)
The paper validates archetypes against CPS unemployment data and finds a counterintuitive result: it is less-change jobs that have seen the largest unemployment increase since 2024 Q1, not auto-risk jobs.
Archetype
2024 Q1
2026 Q1
Δ
Auto-risk
3.1%
3.3%
+0.2pp
Reorganize
2.9%
3.2%
+0.3pp
Grow with AI
2.9%
3.4%
+0.5pp
Less change
4.8%
5.4%
+0.6pp
Source: OpenAI Jobs Transition Framework Table 1 (CPS Basic Monthly, occupation bridged to SOC/O*NET). The paper’s own conclusion: “it remains difficult to clearly link AI and the aggregate labor market.”
Capability overhang (Fig. 5)
Even where the framework flags an occupation as high-automation-risk, actual ChatGPT usage in those jobs runs ~23% of theoretical capability. Realized exposure: 24.6% (grow), 22.8% (auto-risk), 18.4% (reorganize), 3.6% (less-change). The gap between theoretical and realized is what the paper calls the “capability overhang” — AI’s reach is technically possible everywhere but operationally lagging.
OpenAI Signals integration (realized ChatGPT use)
Two pieces of OpenAI Signals (CC BY 4.0, differential-privacy-protected aggregate ChatGPT usage) are now wired in:
- Per-state ChatGPT use rank. Available as the “ChatGPT use” map metric in Country view. The state sidebar shows rank + top message topics. DC tops at #1; Wyoming, West Virginia, and Mississippi bottom out.
- Per-occupation usage intensity. We aggregate the 165 work-related O*NET IWA usage shares up to 41 Generalized Work Activities, then weight by each occupation’s task importance. Stored as realizedExposure100 on each occupation in occupation-risk.json. The metric is rank-normalized 0–100 across the 342 occupations; not directly comparable to the paper’s realized exposure (which is bounded by theoretical capability). Top: management analysts, computer scientists, aerospace engineers. Bottom: physical / manual occupations.
A field-level interpretation note ships in occupation-risk.json: where realized > theoretical, the Karpathy/GPT exposure score may have under-estimated AI applicability for that occupation. Where theoretical > realized, AI capability is technically there but operationally not yet deployed.