Risk map · tasks → jobs → sectors → regions

Where AI risk lands
on the US economy

342 occupations scored on a 5-variable framework, rolled up to 25 sectors and projected onto every US county, metro, and state.

Section 03 · Regional explorer

Where the risk lands on the map

Click any county or metro area to explore how AI is reshaping its labor market. You’ll see the occupations that employ the most people locally, the share of their daily tasks that AI can already perform, and which of four near-term paths the region is bending toward — automation (jobs displaced by AI), reorganization (roles restructured around it), growth (sectors expanding because of it), or stability (work largely unchanged).

% jobs at auto-riskquantile

Q1Q5

Range: 0–100 · binned by rank

USLoading county geometry…

Hover or click any region.

Each polygon is colored by its employment-weighted AI displacement risk. Click to focus the map and see the occupation makeup driving that score.

National roll-up

Average state risk: 53.0 / 100
Total employment scored: 155.5M
Occupations: 342

State and metro scores: BLS OEWS May 2025. County scores: Census ACS 2019–2023 at SOC major-group granularity. Color binning adapts to the current view.

Sector makeup

Where the exposed employment sits

National view — each row is one BLS major occupational group, sorted by employment-weighted net risk.

High-risk timeMedium-risk timeLow-risk time|Total covered: 143.8M workers

Time-share by risk bucket means: for an average worker in this sector, what share of their working hours is spent on tasks our model rates high (red), medium (amber), or low (green) risk. A sector where most hours are red is a sector where AI already overlaps with most of the day’s work.

Sector

Employment

Risk (0–100)

Time-share by risk bucket

Office & admin support
13 occupations
16.1M
65
53% high16% med32% low
Top risk:General office clerks69·Customer service representatives68·Bill and account collectors68
Legal
5 occupations
1.3M
62
59% high14% med27% low
Top risk:Paralegals and legal assistants70·Court reporters and simultaneous captioners69·Arbitrators, mediators, and conciliators60
Math
4 occupations
453K
59
57% high36% med7% low
Top risk:Operations research analysts60·Data scientists60·Actuaries57
Computer & IT
10 occupations
4.6M
57
58% high25% med17% low
Top risk:Computer support specialists61·Computer programmers58·Web developers and digital designers58
Media & communication
10 occupations
1.1M
57
52% high24% med24% low
Top risk:Writers and authors60·Interpreters and translators59·Announcers and DJs59
Protective service
6 occupations
3.0M
56
4% high30% med66% low
Top risk:Private detectives and investigators65·Security guards and gambling surveillance officers61·Fire inspectors55
Business & financial
24 occupations
10.0M
56
48% high24% med28% low
Top risk:Market research analysts62·Insurance underwriters61·Tax examiners and collectors, and revenue agents60
Military
1 occupations
—
56
0% high0% med100% low
Top risk:Military careers56
Education, training & library
14 occupations
8.3M
55
16% high29% med55% low
Top risk:Library technicians and assistants65·Tutors62·Archivists, curators, and museum workers60
Sales
10 occupations
10.8M
54
11% high31% med58% low
Top risk:Travel agents64·Cashiers60·Models60
Community & social service
9 occupations
2.6M
54
10% high34% med56% low
Top risk:Social and human service assistants58·Probation officers and correctional treatment specialists55·School and career counselors and advisors55
Arts & design
9 occupations
741K
53
51% high21% med28% low
Top risk:Graphic designers57·Special effects artists and animators56·Industrial designers54
Architecture & engineering
29 occupations
2.4M
53
40% high27% med33% low
Top risk:Drafters62·Cartographers and photogrammetrists57·Computer hardware engineers57
Life, physical & social science
29 occupations
1.2M
52
29% high31% med40% low
Top risk:Survey researchers61·Economists59·Atmospheric scientists, including meteorologists58
Management
26 occupations
12.1M
51
22% high32% med46% low
Top risk:Advertising, promotions, and marketing managers57·Property, real estate, and community association managers56·Architectural and engineering managers55
Healthcare
49 occupations
18.1M
50
1% high25% med74% low
Top risk:Medical transcriptionists75·Medical records specialists70·Medical dosimetrists63
Production
16 occupations
5.8M
48
0% high24% med76% low
Top risk:Quality control inspectors57·Dental and ophthalmic laboratory technicians and medical appliance technicians54·Water and wastewater treatment plant and system operators53
Farming, fishing & forestry
4 occupations
915K
48
0% high0% med100% low
Top risk:Fishing and hunting workers48·Agricultural workers48·Forest and conservation workers47
Transportation & material moving
11 occupations
13.0M
48
0% high13% med87% low
Top risk:Taxi drivers, shuttle drivers, and chauffeurs56·Air traffic controllers55·Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers51
Entertainment & sports
8 occupations
829K
47
12% high30% med58% low
Top risk:Actors54·Umpires, referees, and other sports officials52·Producers and directors51
Food preparation & serving
6 occupations
12.0M
46
0% high5% med95% low
Top risk:Waiters and waitresses48·Food and beverage serving and related workers47·Cooks46
Installation, maintenance & repair
15 occupations
5.0M
46
0% high12% med88% low
Top risk:Telecommunications technicians50·Calibration technologists and technicians49·Industrial machinery mechanics, machinery maintenance workers, and millwrights48
Personal care & service
11 occupations
3.5M
45
0% high9% med91% low
Top risk:Concierges55·Gambling services workers52·Tour and travel guides51
Construction & extraction
20 occupations
6.1M
43
0% high4% med96% low
Top risk:Construction and building inspectors52·Oil and gas workers48·Construction equipment operators47
Building & grounds cleaning
3 occupations
3.8M
43
0% high0% med100% low
Top risk:Pest control workers45·Janitors and building cleaners44·Grounds maintenance workers40

Appendix

Browse all 342 occupations

The full sortable, filterable table behind the regional roll-ups.

Show table ↓

02 · Occupation drill-down

Every occupation, scored

342 BLS occupations, ranked by net displacement risk on a 0–100 scale. Click any row to see the top-rated tasks driving the score.

Showing 342 of 342 occupations.


Medical transcriptionists	Healthcare	42,000	$40K	10	75	49%
Medical records specialists	Healthcare	200,700	$51K	9	70	54%
Paralegals and legal assistants	Legal	404,900	$63K	9	70	61%
Court reporters and simultaneous captioners	Legal	19,900	$72K	9	69	50%
General office clerks	Office & admin support	2,600,000	$45K	9	69	62%
Bill and account collectors	Office & admin support	160,200	$47K	9	68	59%
Customer service representatives	Office & admin support	2,666,000	$45K	9	68	55%
Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks	Office & admin support	1,532,400	$51K	9	67	61%
Secretaries and administrative assistants	Office & admin support	3,515,600	$48K	8	66	61%
Desktop publishers	Office & admin support	4,600	$55K	9	65	62%
Library technicians and assistants	Education, training & library	162,300	$39K	7	65	41%
Private detectives and investigators	Protective service	39,500	$51K	6	65	41%
Travel agents	Sales	61,500	$50K	9	64	49%
Financial clerks	Office & admin support	1,144,900	$50K	9	63	0%
Medical dosimetrists	Healthcare	3,500	$147K	8	63	53%
Drafters	Architecture & engineering	180,200	$68K	9	62	55%
Information clerks	Office & admin support	1,287,600	$45K	7	62	42%
Market research analysts	Business & financial	952,700	$79K	9	62	55%
Receptionists	Office & admin support	947,500	$38K	7	62	42%
Tutors	Education, training & library	208,400	$43K	7	62	27%
Computer support specialists	Computer & IT	903,100	$63K	8	61	62%
Insurance underwriters	Business & financial	125,600	$81K	9	61	53%
Public safety telecommunicators	Office & admin support	105,600	$53K	7	61	61%
Security guards and gambling surveillance officers	Protective service	1,304,000	$38K	5	61	7%
Survey researchers	Life, physical & social science	9,800	$69K	9	61	48%
Tellers	Office & admin support	339,200	$43K	7	61	47%
Arbitrators, mediators, and conciliators	Legal	10,500	$76K	7	60	40%
Archivists, curators, and museum workers	Education, training & library	38,500	$60K	6	60	35%
Cashiers	Sales	3,106,300	$33K	7	60	9%
Data scientists	Math	275,600	$120K	9	60	56%
Health information technologists and medical registrars	Healthcare	42,000	$68K	8	60	0%
Material recording clerks	Office & admin support	1,273,500	$48K	7	60	35%
Models	Sales	4,200	$48K	8	60	0%
Operations research analysts	Math	113,100	$89K	9	60	61%
Tax examiners and collectors, and revenue agents	Business & financial	60,100	$62K	8	60	54%
Writers and authors	Media & communication	140,300	$77K	9	60	61%
Announcers and DJs	Media & communication	38,700	$47K	7	59	53%
Budget analysts	Business & financial	50,400	$92K	8	59	49%
Claims adjusters, appraisers, examiners, and investigators	Business & financial	389,700	$78K	7	59	48%
Cost estimators	Business & financial	226,400	$79K	8	59	54%
Economists	Life, physical & social science	18,600	$125K	9	59	68%
Editors	Media & communication	105,000	$78K	9	59	60%
Interpreters and translators	Media & communication	73,900	$60K	9	59	49%
Technical writers	Media & communication	46,400	$90K	9	59	56%
Accountants and auditors	Business & financial	1,595,200	$84K	8	58	60%
Adult basic and secondary education and ESL teachers	Education, training & library	41,100	$62K	7	58	25%
Atmospheric scientists, including meteorologists	Life, physical & social science	10,700	$99K	8	58	56%
Compensation, benefits, and job analysis specialists	Business & financial	118,100	$78K	8	58	47%
Compliance officers	Business & financial	436,400	$81K	8	58	60%
Computer programmers	Computer & IT	110,800	$100K	9	58	50%
Financial examiners	Business & financial	70,000	$94K	8	58	53%
Lawyers	Legal	863,700	$160K	8	58	59%
Loan officers	Business & financial	283,000	$77K	8	58	47%
Social and human service assistants	Community & social service	463,400	$46K	5	58	0%
Web developers and digital designers	Computer & IT	220,100	$100K	9	58	51%
Actuaries	Math	31,200	$130K	8	57	55%
Advertising, promotions, and marketing managers	Management	454,800	$166K	8	57	40%
Cartographers and photogrammetrists	Architecture & engineering	14,700	$81K	8	57	49%
Computer and information research scientists	Computer & IT	38,600	$140K	9	57	61%
Computer hardware engineers	Architecture & engineering	76,100	$162K	8	57	48%
Credit counselors	Business & financial	31,200	$52K	7	57	28%
Database administrators and architects	Computer & IT	144,500	$127K	9	57	54%
Geographers	Life, physical & social science	1,500	$102K	8	57	49%
Graphic designers	Arts & design	253,100	$63K	9	57	68%
High school teachers	Education, training & library	1,087,500	$72K	7	57	27%
Insurance sales agents	Sales	572,600	$62K	7	57	34%
Judges and hearing officers	Legal	42,700	$133K	7	57	40%
Librarians and library media specialists	Education, training & library	142,300	$68K	7	57	55%
Mathematicians and statisticians	Math	33,500	$106K	9	57	50%
Photographers	Media & communication	145,000	$45K	7	57	40%
Political scientists	Life, physical & social science	6,100	$142K	8	57	55%
Postsecondary teachers	Education, training & library	1,378,200	$85K	7	57	0%
Property appraisers and assessors	Business & financial	68,400	$68K	7	57	41%
Quality control inspectors	Production	602,000	$49K	5	57	0%
Advertising sales agents	Sales	99,300	$65K	7	56	33%
Broadcast, sound, and video technicians	Media & communication	136,600	$60K	6	56	41%
Dietitians and nutritionists	Healthcare	86,300	$76K	6	56	21%
Information security analysts	Computer & IT	192,900	$129K	8	56	55%
Instructional coordinators	Education, training & library	248,700	$77K	7	56	33%
Kindergarten and elementary school teachers	Education, training & library	1,530,500	$64K	6	56	27%
Military careers	Military	0	—	4	56	0%
Network and computer systems administrators	Computer & IT	323,600	$99K	8	56	49%
Occupational health and safety specialists and technicians	Healthcare	174,300	$84K	5	56	0%
Opticians	Healthcare	74,300	$47K	4	56	0%
Pharmacy technicians	Healthcare	471,200	$46K	4	56	0%
Property, real estate, and community association managers	Management	460,400	$70K	6	56	14%
Software developers, quality assurance analysts, and testers	Computer & IT	1,905,400	$134K	9	56	60%
Special effects artists and animators	Arts & design	51,900	$102K	9	56	53%
Taxi drivers, shuttle drivers, and chauffeurs	Transportation & material moving	455,700	$38K	5	56	0%
Air traffic controllers	Transportation & material moving	24,000	$148K	7	55	48%
Architectural and engineering managers	Management	220,900	$171K	7	55	54%
Compensation and benefits managers	Management	23,700	$149K	7	55	41%
Computer and information systems managers	Management	685,800	$175K	7	55	41%
Computer network architects	Computer & IT	181,800	$134K	8	55	49%
Concierges	Personal care & service	50,200	$39K	5	55	8%
Financial analysts	Business & financial	443,100	$104K	9	55	0%
Fire inspectors	Protective service	17,600	$74K	4	55	0%
Genetic counselors	Healthcare	4,200	$100K	6	55	47%
Health education specialists	Community & social service	70,400	$64K	6	55	34%
Historians	Life, physical & social science	3,800	$77K	7	55	43%
Medical assistants	Healthcare	833,900	$46K	4	55	0%
Natural sciences managers	Management	112,200	$167K	7	55	47%
Probation officers and correctional treatment specialists	Community & social service	93,700	$66K	6	55	34%
Public relations and fundraising managers	Management	129,600	$136K	7	55	42%
School and career counselors and advisors	Community & social service	389,500	$64K	6	55	41%
Securities, commodities, and financial services sales agents	Sales	531,000	$79K	8	55	54%
Training and development managers	Management	50,200	$133K	7	55	40%
Training and development specialists	Business & financial	472,500	$69K	7	55	47%
Actors	Entertainment & sports	67,500	$60K	7	54	8%
Aerospace engineers	Architecture & engineering	68,700	$135K	7	54	48%
Chemists and materials scientists	Life, physical & social science	93,500	$95K	7	54	40%
Civil engineering technologists and technicians	Architecture & engineering	70,900	$65K	6	54	29%
Clinical laboratory technologists and technicians	Healthcare	343,000	$63K	5	54	0%
Computer systems analysts	Computer & IT	544,400	$106K	8	54	56%
Dental and ophthalmic laboratory technicians and medical appliance technicians	Production	64,300	$47K	5	54	8%
Financial managers	Management	879,700	$167K	7	54	34%
Fundraisers	Business & financial	140,900	$73K	7	54	34%
Human resources specialists	Business & financial	939,700	$76K	7	54	41%
Industrial designers	Arts & design	35,400	$84K	8	54	60%
Logisticians	Business & financial	255,100	$82K	7	54	41%
Middle school teachers	Education, training & library	630,100	$64K	6	54	19%
News analysts, reporters, and journalists	Media & communication	47,100	$62K	7	54	55%
Police and detectives	Protective service	824,200	$77K	4	54	0%
Project management specialists	Business & financial	1,094,300	$102K	7	54	35%
Psychologists	Life, physical & social science	209,400	$99K	6	54	34%
Public relations specialists	Media & communication	314,500	$75K	8	54	53%
Purchasing managers, buyers, and purchasing agents	Business & financial	604,400	$82K	7	54	41%
Real estate brokers and sales agents	Sales	530,600	$57K	6	54	40%
Surveying and mapping technicians	Architecture & engineering	58,800	$54K	5	54	0%
Teacher assistants	Education, training & library	1,463,000	$37K	4	54	0%
Transportation, storage, and distribution managers	Management	228,100	$107K	6	54	20%
Wholesale and manufacturing sales representatives	Sales	1,571,400	$76K	7	54	8%
Architects	Architecture & engineering	124,600	$99K	7	53	43%
Bioengineers and biomedical engineers	Architecture & engineering	23,800	$109K	7	53	48%
Correctional officers and bailiffs	Protective service	415,800	$59K	3	53	0%
Epidemiologists	Life, physical & social science	12,800	$87K	7	53	54%
Human resources managers	Management	224,900	$149K	7	53	26%
Industrial engineering technologists and technicians	Architecture & engineering	76,700	$66K	6	53	28%
Industrial engineers	Architecture & engineering	365,100	$102K	7	53	54%
Labor relations specialists	Business & financial	66,300	$95K	7	53	34%
Landscape architects	Architecture & engineering	23,500	$80K	7	53	48%
Lodging managers	Management	54,800	$69K	5	53	0%
Management analysts	Business & financial	1,077,100	$102K	7	53	54%
Materials engineers	Architecture & engineering	23,800	$113K	7	53	48%
Mechanical engineers	Architecture & engineering	298,500	$104K	7	53	48%
Nuclear engineers	Architecture & engineering	16,600	$134K	7	53	48%
Personal financial advisors	Business & financial	299,400	$105K	7	53	42%
Postsecondary education administrators	Management	231,800	$105K	7	53	33%
Psychiatric technicians and aides	Healthcare	198,400	$45K	3	53	0%
Rehabilitation counselors	Community & social service	96,900	$47K	5	53	0%
Sales managers	Management	650,100	$148K	7	53	33%
Social workers	Community & social service	816,100	$62K	4	53	0%
Sociologists	Life, physical & social science	2,700	$106K	7	53	42%
Veterinary technologists and technicians	Healthcare	131,400	$47K	4	53	0%
Water and wastewater treatment plant and system operators	Production	131,000	$60K	5	53	0%
Art directors	Arts & design	140,200	$115K	8	52	56%
Chemical technicians	Life, physical & social science	60,000	$60K	5	52	0%
Construction and building inspectors	Construction & extraction	153,900	$75K	5	52	0%
Craft and fine artists	Arts & design	53,400	$55K	6	52	0%
Diagnostic medical sonographers	Healthcare	92,200	$97K	5	52	8%
Electrical and electronics engineers	Architecture & engineering	297,900	$125K	7	52	52%
Environmental scientists and specialists	Life, physical & social science	93,400	$82K	6	52	41%
Film and video editors and camera operators	Media & communication	72,000	$75K	7	52	54%
Gambling services workers	Personal care & service	146,500	$37K	4	52	0%
Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses	Healthcare	666,900	$64K	4	52	0%
Marine engineers and naval architects	Architecture & engineering	8,400	$112K	7	52	34%
Medical scientists	Life, physical & social science	181,000	$103K	7	52	42%
Meeting, convention, and event planners	Business & financial	172,100	$61K	6	52	32%
Physicists and astronomers	Life, physical & social science	25,600	$167K	7	52	37%
Power plant operators, distributors, and dispatchers	Production	43,700	$105K	6	52	14%
Social and community service managers	Management	231,000	$80K	6	52	34%
Substance abuse, behavioral disorder, and mental health counselors	Community & social service	533,400	$59K	5	52	7%
Umpires, referees, and other sports officials	Entertainment & sports	18,200	$41K	5	52	0%
Urban and regional planners	Life, physical & social science	45,800	$89K	7	52	40%
Agricultural and food scientists	Life, physical & social science	37,400	$82K	6	51	39%
Biochemists and biophysicists	Life, physical & social science	35,200	$127K	7	51	53%
Biological technicians	Life, physical & social science	74,400	$58K	5	51	0%
Bus drivers	Transportation & material moving	563,200	$49K	4	51	0%
Cardiovascular technologists and technicians	Healthcare	64,500	$74K	4	51	0%
Community health workers	Community & social service	64,700	$52K	3	51	0%
Emergency management directors	Management	14,000	$93K	6	51	14%
Exercise physiologists	Healthcare	21,200	$59K	4	51	0%
Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers	Transportation & material moving	2,221,200	$59K	5	51	0%
Hydrologists	Life, physical & social science	6,300	$97K	6	51	41%
Interior designers	Arts & design	97,100	$67K	7	51	53%
Jewelers and precious stone and metal workers	Production	32,800	$53K	4	51	0%
Machinists and tool and die makers	Production	344,900	$60K	4	51	0%
Marriage and family therapists	Community & social service	76,300	$67K	5	51	0%
Material moving machine operators	Transportation & material moving	841,500	$47K	4	51	0%
Microbiologists	Life, physical & social science	20,100	$88K	6	51	40%
Music directors and composers	Entertainment & sports	51,100	$74K	7	51	20%
Physical therapist assistants and aides	Healthcare	163,200	$61K	3	51	0%
Physician assistants	Healthcare	168,900	$136K	5	51	14%
Producers and directors	Entertainment & sports	181,000	$90K	7	51	49%
Semiconductor processing technicians	Production	31,200	$51K	4	51	0%
Set and exhibit designers	Arts & design	31,600	$75K	7	51	36%
Speech-language pathologists	Healthcare	193,400	$98K	5	51	7%
Tour and travel guides	Personal care & service	62,200	$38K	4	51	0%
Agricultural engineers	Architecture & engineering	1,500	$99K	6	50	34%
Airline and commercial pilots	Transportation & material moving	154,900	$210K	5	50	14%
Dental assistants	Healthcare	388,600	$48K	3	50	0%
Electrical and electronic engineering technologists and technicians	Architecture & engineering	96,900	$78K	5	50	0%
Environmental engineering technologists and technicians	Architecture & engineering	12,500	$60K	5	50	0%
Firefighters	Protective service	355,300	$59K	3	50	0%
Industrial production managers	Management	252,100	$126K	6	50	28%
Medical and health services managers	Management	640,400	$124K	6	50	27%
Nurse anesthetists, nurse midwives, and nurse practitioners	Healthcare	399,000	$135K	5	50	0%
Nursing assistants and orderlies	Healthcare	1,558,700	$42K	2	50	0%
Occupational therapy assistants and aides	Healthcare	56,600	$71K	3	50	0%
Petroleum engineers	Architecture & engineering	18,500	$145K	6	50	34%
Sales engineers	Sales	51,600	$125K	7	50	35%
Special education teachers	Education, training & library	584,100	$67K	5	50	0%
Telecommunications technicians	Installation, maintenance & repair	257,800	$66K	3	50	0%
Top executives	Management	3,890,600	$109K	6	50	20%
Veterinary assistants and laboratory animal caretakers	Healthcare	132,100	$38K	2	50	0%
Aerospace engineering and operations technologists and technicians	Architecture & engineering	11,600	$83K	5	49	7%
Agricultural and food science technicians	Life, physical & social science	40,400	$51K	4	49	0%
Anthropologists and archeologists	Life, physical & social science	10,200	$71K	5	49	7%
Calibration technologists and technicians	Installation, maintenance & repair	17,000	$68K	4	49	0%
Chemical engineers	Architecture & engineering	21,900	$125K	6	49	35%
Civil engineers	Architecture & engineering	380,600	$101K	6	49	34%
Elementary, middle, and high school principals	Management	343,800	$106K	6	49	13%
EMTs and paramedics	Healthcare	284,100	$48K	3	49	0%
Environmental science and protection technicians	Life, physical & social science	36,400	$55K	4	49	0%
Fashion designers	Arts & design	32,700	$81K	7	49	40%
Food service managers	Management	344,300	$69K	4	49	0%
Forensic science technicians	Life, physical & social science	20,100	$72K	5	49	0%
Home health and personal care aides	Healthcare	4,677,100	$36K	2	49	0%
Mechanical engineering technologists and technicians	Architecture & engineering	36,900	$75K	5	49	0%
Mining and geological engineers	Architecture & engineering	6,200	$106K	6	49	34%
Nuclear medicine technologists	Healthcare	17,400	$101K	4	49	0%
Nuclear technicians	Life, physical & social science	6,700	$110K	5	49	8%
Pharmacists	Healthcare	325,200	$141K	5	49	7%
Postal service workers	Office & admin support	488,500	$60K	3	49	0%
Preschool and childcare center directors	Management	91,900	$59K	5	49	0%
Radiation therapists	Healthcare	17,400	$105K	4	49	0%
Radiologic and MRI technologists	Healthcare	278,100	$81K	4	49	0%
Recreation workers	Personal care & service	346,900	$37K	3	49	0%
Respiratory therapists	Healthcare	142,000	$82K	4	49	0%
Retail sales workers	Sales	4,271,400	$36K	4	49	0%
Agricultural workers	Farming, fishing & forestry	831,900	$36K	3	48	0%
Career and technical education teachers	Education, training & library	250,200	$65K	4	48	0%
Delivery truck drivers and driver/sales workers	Transportation & material moving	1,511,400	$44K	3	48	0%
Entertainment and recreation managers	Management	43,900	$80K	5	48	0%
Environmental engineers	Architecture & engineering	39,100	$107K	6	48	47%
Farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers	Management	788,700	$90K	4	48	0%
Fishing and hunting workers	Farming, fishing & forestry	28,200	—	2	48	0%
Fitness trainers and instructors	Personal care & service	388,400	$47K	3	48	0%
Geological and hydrologic technicians	Life, physical & social science	10,300	$57K	5	48	0%
Geoscientists	Life, physical & social science	25,400	$102K	5	48	14%
Industrial machinery mechanics, machinery maintenance workers, and millwrights	Installation, maintenance & repair	547,300	$64K	3	48	0%
Metal and plastic machine workers	Production	963,000	$48K	4	48	0%
Oil and gas workers	Construction & extraction	112,700	$52K	3	48	0%
Orthotists and prosthetists	Healthcare	9,500	$81K	4	48	0%
Painting and coating workers	Production	173,000	$48K	3	48	0%
Phlebotomists	Healthcare	143,900	$45K	2	48	0%
Preschool teachers	Education, training & library	583,200	$38K	3	48	0%
Registered nurses	Healthcare	3,465,400	$98K	4	48	0%
Surgical assistants and technologists	Healthcare	142,800	$65K	3	48	0%
Waiters and waitresses	Food preparation & serving	2,284,400	$35K	3	48	0%
Zoologists and wildlife biologists	Life, physical & social science	19,500	$77K	5	48	0%
Administrative services and facilities managers	Management	444,800	$111K	5	47	8%
Bakers	Production	262,400	$37K	2	47	0%
Construction equipment operators	Construction & extraction	534,100	$60K	3	47	0%
Construction managers	Management	609,100	$115K	5	47	0%
Diesel service technicians and mechanics	Installation, maintenance & repair	316,000	$62K	3	47	0%
Flight attendants	Transportation & material moving	133,700	$64K	3	47	0%
Food and beverage serving and related workers	Food preparation & serving	5,143,000	$32K	3	47	0%
Forest and conservation workers	Farming, fishing & forestry	14,700	$44K	2	47	0%
Heavy vehicle and mobile equipment service technicians	Installation, maintenance & repair	242,400	$64K	3	47	0%
Massage therapists	Healthcare	155,400	$58K	2	47	0%
Musicians and singers	Entertainment & sports	170,400	$99K	4	47	0%
Surveyors	Architecture & engineering	52,000	$75K	5	47	0%
Assemblers and fabricators	Production	1,799,500	$45K	3	46	0%
Athletic trainers	Healthcare	35,200	$63K	3	46	0%
Audiologists	Healthcare	14,200	$96K	4	46	0%
Automotive service technicians and mechanics	Installation, maintenance & repair	825,800	$51K	3	46	0%
Butchers	Production	359,300	$39K	2	46	0%
Cooks	Food preparation & serving	2,705,800	$37K	3	46	0%
Electrical and electronics installers and repairers	Installation, maintenance & repair	117,700	$74K	3	46	0%
Electro-mechanical and mechatronics technologists and technicians	Architecture & engineering	15,700	$74K	4	46	0%
Floral designers	Arts & design	45,200	$37K	3	46	0%
Food processing equipment workers	Production	297,000	$41K	3	46	0%
Medical equipment repairers	Installation, maintenance & repair	71,800	$62K	3	46	0%
Optometrists	Healthcare	45,100	$137K	4	46	0%
Podiatrists	Healthcare	10,000	$160K	4	46	0%
Railroad workers	Transportation & material moving	80,500	$79K	4	46	0%
Recreational therapists	Healthcare	15,600	$62K	3	46	0%
Sheet metal workers	Construction & extraction	131,100	$62K	3	46	0%
Veterinarians	Healthcare	91,100	$130K	4	46	0%
Woodworkers	Production	199,900	$45K	3	46	0%
Automotive body and glass repairers	Installation, maintenance & repair	185,800	$53K	2	45	0%
Childcare workers	Personal care & service	1,010,300	$35K	2	45	0%
Conservation scientists and foresters	Life, physical & social science	40,900	$74K	4	45	0%
General maintenance and repair workers	Installation, maintenance & repair	1,621,800	$50K	2	45	0%
Hand laborers and material movers	Transportation & material moving	6,917,800	$38K	2	45	0%
Hazardous materials removal workers	Construction & extraction	52,700	$49K	2	45	0%
Health and safety engineers	Architecture & engineering	22,300	$115K	5	45	0%
Pest control workers	Building & grounds cleaning	108,700	$45K	2	45	0%
Physicians and surgeons	Healthcare	862,800	$276K	5	45	0%
Skincare specialists	Personal care & service	104,200	$45K	3	45	0%
Small engine mechanics	Installation, maintenance & repair	77,500	$50K	2	45	0%
Stationary engineers and boiler operators	Production	31,200	$79K	3	45	0%
Welders, cutters, solderers, and brazers	Production	437,700	$54K	2	45	0%
Animal care and service workers	Personal care & service	413,000	$36K	2	44	0%
Bartenders	Food preparation & serving	762,600	$34K	2	44	0%
Carpenters	Construction & extraction	889,700	$61K	2	44	0%
Coaches and scouts	Entertainment & sports	298,800	$47K	4	44	0%
Elevator and escalator installers and repairers	Construction & extraction	24,700	$110K	3	44	0%
Food preparation workers	Food preparation & serving	908,500	$35K	2	44	0%
Glaziers	Construction & extraction	59,200	$57K	2	44	0%
Janitors and building cleaners	Building & grounds cleaning	2,432,600	$37K	1	44	0%
Logging workers	Farming, fishing & forestry	40,400	$50K	2	44	0%
Solar photovoltaic installers	Construction & extraction	31,100	$53K	2	44	0%
Aircraft and avionics equipment mechanics and technicians	Installation, maintenance & repair	159,800	$80K	3	43	0%
Boilermakers	Construction & extraction	10,200	$76K	2	43	0%
Chefs and head cooks	Food preparation & serving	220,300	$62K	3	43	0%
Chiropractors	Healthcare	61,700	$79K	3	43	0%
Electricians	Construction & extraction	821,000	$63K	2	43	0%
Flooring installers and tile and stone setters	Construction & extraction	97,000	$54K	1	43	0%
Funeral service workers	Personal care & service	61,500	$61K	3	43	0%
Insulation workers	Construction & extraction	71,900	$51K	2	43	0%
Masonry workers	Construction & extraction	277,700	$58K	2	43	0%
Occupational therapists	Healthcare	169,600	$100K	3	43	0%
Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters	Construction & extraction	510,600	$64K	2	43	0%
Water transportation workers	Transportation & material moving	85,900	$72K	3	43	0%
Barbers, hairstylists, and cosmetologists	Personal care & service	670,800	$36K	2	42	0%
Construction laborers and helpers	Construction & extraction	1,674,400	$47K	1	42	0%
Drywall installers, ceiling tile installers, and tapers	Construction & extraction	118,000	$60K	1	42	0%
Heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers	Installation, maintenance & repair	440,900	$61K	2	42	0%
Manicurists and pedicurists	Personal care & service	201,800	$36K	2	42	0%
Painters, construction and maintenance	Construction & extraction	326,900	$49K	1	42	0%
Roofers	Construction & extraction	166,900	$55K	1	42	0%
Dentists	Healthcare	161,400	$176K	3	41	0%
Wind turbine technicians	Installation, maintenance & repair	11,800	$64K	2	41	0%
Electrical power-line installers and repairers	Installation, maintenance & repair	131,900	$95K	2	40	0%
Grounds maintenance workers	Building & grounds cleaning	1,299,200	$40K	1	40	0%
Ironworkers	Construction & extraction	84,800	$62K	1	40	0%
Dancers and choreographers	Entertainment & sports	18,600	$53K	2	39	0%
Dental hygienists	Healthcare	225,300	$98K	2	38	0%
Athletes and sports competitors	Entertainment & sports	22,900	$67K	1	37	0%
Physical therapists	Healthcare	283,700	$103K	3	37	0%

04 · Methodology

How risk is scored

Show details ↓

Five research-backed variables — two pressure forces and three buffers — combined into a bounded 0–10 net risk per occupation, then employment-weighted into sectors.

PressureTechnical Exposure

How many of this occupation's tasks can AI actually perform today? Anchored to the Karpathy/GPT exposure score, carried through at the occupation level.

PressureAdoption Speed

How fast will firms in this sector actually deploy AI? Mapped from task-composition-weighted category adoption lag. Regulated industries lag tech by years.

BufferWorker Adaptability

Can displaced workers retrain and transition? Built from pay percentile and education tier, equal-weighted across the 342-occupation set.

BufferDemand Elasticity

When AI makes output cheaper, does demand expand enough to offset job losses? Rule-based defaults by BLS major category at present.

BufferAI Complementarity

Does AI replace workers or make them more productive? Estimated from task composition and adjusted by job dimensionality — the number of distinct task clusters.

Roll-up

Each task gets a 0–100 risk score from technical exposure, adoption pace, demand outlook, and O*NET importance.
Task scores are bucketed (low < 33, medium 33–66, high > 66) and time-weighted by O*NET importance to yield per-occupation time-share.
Occupations are scored on the 5-variable framework, combined into a net risk on 0–10 (and also displayed on 0–100).
Sector risk is the employment-weighted average of occupation net risk across that BLS major group.

On the OpenAI Jobs Transition Framework

The four archetypes on this page (Automation Risk, Reorganize, Grow, Less Change) and the decision-tree structure come from Richmond’s AI Jobs Transition Framework (OpenAI, April 2026). We apply the framework using our 5-variable scores rather than the paper’s per-occupation outputs, which haven’t been published as a downloadable table yet. National splits from our classifier (auto-risk ~34% / reorganize ~7% / grow ~9% / less-change ~50%) differ from the paper’s (18% / 24% / 12% / 46%), mostly because our human-necessity proxy is task-share-based rather than the paper’s GPT-5.4-scored regulatory/relational/physical taxonomy. Qualitative groupings agree: lawyers and physicians land in reorganize, software developers in grow, customer-service reps and general clerks in automation-risk. We expect to refine the classifier once the paper’s technical appendix is released.

Counterpoint from the paper (Table 1)

The paper validates archetypes against CPS unemployment data and finds a counterintuitive result: it is less-change jobs that have seen the largest unemployment increase since 2024 Q1, not auto-risk jobs.

Archetype

2024 Q1

2026 Q1

Auto-risk

3.1%

3.3%

+0.2pp

Reorganize

2.9%

3.2%

+0.3pp

Grow with AI

2.9%

3.4%

+0.5pp

Less change

4.8%

5.4%

+0.6pp

Source: OpenAI Jobs Transition Framework Table 1 (CPS Basic Monthly, occupation bridged to SOC/O*NET). The paper’s own conclusion: “it remains difficult to clearly link AI and the aggregate labor market.”

Capability overhang (Fig. 5)

Even where the framework flags an occupation as high-automation-risk, actual ChatGPT usage in those jobs runs ~23% of theoretical capability. Realized exposure: 24.6% (grow), 22.8% (auto-risk), 18.4% (reorganize), 3.6% (less-change). The gap between theoretical and realized is what the paper calls the “capability overhang” — AI’s reach is technically possible everywhere but operationally lagging.

OpenAI Signals integration (realized ChatGPT use)

Two pieces of OpenAI Signals (CC BY 4.0, differential-privacy-protected aggregate ChatGPT usage) are now wired in:

Per-state ChatGPT use rank. Available as the “ChatGPT use” map metric in Country view. The state sidebar shows rank + top message topics. DC tops at #1; Wyoming, West Virginia, and Mississippi bottom out.
Per-occupation usage intensity. We aggregate the 165 work-related O*NET IWA usage shares up to 41 Generalized Work Activities, then weight by each occupation’s task importance. Stored as realizedExposure100 on each occupation in occupation-risk.json. The metric is rank-normalized 0–100 across the 342 occupations; not directly comparable to the paper’s realized exposure (which is bounded by theoretical capability). Top: management analysts, computer scientists, aerospace engineers. Bottom: physical / manual occupations.

A field-level interpretation note ships in occupation-risk.json: where realized > theoretical, the Karpathy/GPT exposure score may have under-estimated AI applicability for that occupation. Where theoretical > realized, AI capability is technically there but operationally not yet deployed.

Full 5-variables essay →|Task visualizer|Demand elasticity explainer|All predictions

Where AI risk lands on the US economy